NFL Defensive Player Of The Year Odds: Is Micah Parsons Now A Vulnerable Favorite?
In the past week, we’ve seen some shift in the awards markets again, including NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Despite the Cowboys being embarrassed by the Cardinals on Sunday, Micah Parsons is the favorite. Their Super Bowl odds still show Dallas as the third favorite to come out of the NFC behind the 49ers and Eagles. Let’s dive into NFL DPOY odds and see if Parsons can take home the award or if someone else can snatch it from him.
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defensive player of the year Odds: micah parsons The Favorite
Parsons’ odds have shrunk to a number that is hard to bet this early in the season, with the best odds available currently at . During the summer, bettors could’ve grabbed him at +700.
The issue with these Parsons odds, as previously mentioned, is that Arizona just trucked Dallas’ defense. The Joshua Dobbs-led Cardinals notched 7.5 yards per play, second only to the Dolphins in Week 3. Parsons still accumulated five pressures and a sack in the loss. But can Dallas’ defense maintain dominance, specifically when the schedule gets tougher?
The Dallas defense will have to go at it without cornerback Trevon Diggs, who tore his ACL in practice leading up to their Week 3 game. While Diggs was susceptible to getting burned in coverage, he was a turnover machine. In his three years in the league, he’s already accounted for 18 interceptions. The Cowboys’ defense could face regression with him out for the year.
Slotting in as his replacement will be former nickel corner DaRon Bland. Bland had five interceptions operating primarily out of the slot a year ago but could struggle to move to the outside.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR Odds: Contenders
Steelers EDGE TJ Watt
Watt currently leads the league in sacks, having taken down opposing quarterbacks six times through three games. He’s also leading the league in pressures, with a whopping 15 logged already. At this rate, if Watt stays healthy, Michael Strahan’s record of 22.5 seems well within reach. Keep in mind that Watt had 22.5 sacks in 2021 when he last played 15+ games in a season. Injury may be the only thing standing in Watt’s way now.
Aiding Watt’s case is that the Steelers are getting takeaways, having already notched eight (No. 2 in the NFL). If they keep up this turnover rate, they’ll force opponents to play from behind, allowing Watt to T-off in obvious passing situations.
Best available price for Watt to win DPOY:
Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Longshot to Consider
Chiefs DT Chris Jones
In the middle of last week, Jones could’ve been found around +6000 to win DPOY. The 310 lb. defensive tackle ended his holdout and rejoined the team before their matchup against the Jaguars. In the two games since, he’s already logged 2.5 sacks, and the Chiefs defense has allowed a mere 19 points. The Chiefs defense ranks fifth in EPA, behind the Browns, Bills, Cowboys and 49ers. However, since Jones has been back, they sit at third, and the Chiefs are 2-0.
We could see this Jones number shrink after a meeting with Zach Wilson and the Jets this weekend. New York’s interior linemen have already allowed 27 pressures on the season. I’d expect Jones to feast against this unit and see his number sliced down again. His issue will be gaining enough ground on the favorites to win the award. He’s already down one game on Parsons and Watt. An injury to one of the favorites or facing a stifling offensive line could help Jones get back in the hunt. He does have two matchups against the Broncos, who have allowed the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league thus far.
While this award has historically been given to edge rushers, defensive tackle Aaron Donald has won the award three of the past six seasons. Perhaps Jones can be the next interior lineman to take it home.
Best available price for Jones to win DPOY :
FINAL THOUGHTS ON DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Ultimately, I think Watt will chase down Parsons and win this award. He’s already two sacks ahead of Parsons and has logged three more pressures than the next pass rusher. Jones is also an intriguing option, given that the Chiefs’ defense has destroyed their opponents. They did, however, demolish the struggling Jaguars and a Bears team that appears to be the worst in the league again. Best of luck betting Defensive Player of the Year odds!
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