NFL Defensive Player Of The Year Odds: Can Mr. Pick 6 Daron Bland Win?

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Written By Derek Wagner | Last Updated
defensive player of the year odds

In recent weeks, we’ve seen massive movement in the awards market, including NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Myles Garrett remains the favorite to win the award despite the Browns’ 29-12 loss to the Broncos. However, Daron Bland has entered the picture after another interception returned for a touchdown on Thanksgiving Day to break the single-season Pick Six record. Let’s dive into NFL DPOY odds and see if Bland can snatch the award from the usual suspects.

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Bland’s number has shrunk considerably since Nov. 19. Before the Cowboys’ game against Carolina, bettors could’ve nabbed Bland at +10000 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Now, the best current price is . Bland catapulting up the odds board is a result of his record-breaking fifth pick-six in a single season that occurred on Thursday’s game against the Washington Commanders. The former fifth-round pick from Fresno State picked off a Sam Howell pass in the fourth quarter and returned it 63 yards for a score. Pick-sixes are rare, so having five in a single season will surely capture the attention of voters when it comes time to vote. released their midseason awards predictions on Nov. 8, with a total of 27 analysts participating in the voting. Sixteen votes had Garrett winning the award, while six votes went to Parson and five went to T.J. Watt. If that polling were to happen today, I’d venture to guess that Bland would garner votes. Eagles cornerback Darius Slay agrees, having posted on X (formerly Twitter):

“DPOY Bland right now….it shouldn’t even be a debate”.

It’s worth mentioning that three of Dallas’ remaining six games are primetime games. If Bland can notch another primetime takeaway, this number will likely shrink even further.


Cleveland Browns star pass rusher Myles Garrett remains the favorite for DPOY at all sportsbooks; however, he did suffer a shoulder injury against the Broncos. Head coach Kevin Stefanski said on Monday that there was no structural damage, and he can still suit up this Sunday against the Rams.

The team and Garrett remain optimistic he can play through the injury, but it may limit his ability to get to the quarterback and accrue statistics to win this award. An upper-body injury like this could affect his ability to generate substantial pressure against offensive linemen.

For the season, the 6-foot-4 edge rusher has notched 13 sacks and is only a half-sack behind Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt for the lead. The following two weeks are crucial for Garrett as he faces the Rams and Jaguars, each with offensive lines that grade in the league’s bottom half in pass block win rate. In Week 15, he faces a stout Bears offensive line but a quarterback in Justin Fields who has the second-highest sack rate in the league at 12.3% (trailing only Daniel Jones), mainly because he’s holding the ball too long.


Ultimately, I think Garret is a vulnerable favorite because of this injury. He felt a pop in his shoulder and was in a sling after the game. Also, without Deshaun Watson under center the rest of the way, opponents may be playing in a more positive game script against the Browns in the second half of games.

While Micah Parsons doesn’t lead the league in sacks (11.5), a scenario could play out where he’s leading near season’s end, and he and Bland split votes for this award. If Bland takes home the award, though, it would be the first time a defensive back won since 2019 when Stephon Gilmore won for the Patriots. Gilmore accumulated six interceptions that year and took two back for touchdowns. Belichick’s defense was rewarded for ranking first in EPA per play and in points allowed per game (14.1). It’s worth noting that in 2021, Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs led the league in interceptions with 11. However, Diggs failed to win DPOY because T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record with 22.5. No one, including Watt, is on pace to accumulate that many sacks this year.

If there was a year for a defensive back to take him the award again, this could be the year.


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