3 Contract Incentives To Remember Before Betting NFL Player Props
NFL Week 1 bets are flowing into sportsbook accounts, and that means sports bettors have a limited amount of time left to lock in some season-long player props at the best betting sites. Can NFL contract incentives help us with those prop bets? Let’s examine a few of them and see if some player props are worth betting on as a result.
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Giants QB DANIEL JONES
Jones headlines our list of season-long props that are worth mentioning. The Giants‘ signal caller signed a four-year $160 million deal with incentives this offseason:
- $250,000 bonus: 19+ TD passes or top 15 in TD passes
This number is undoubtedly attainable, but the Duke product has only reached this number once in his career, with that being his rookie season. His passing touchdowns prop sits at .
The issue with Jones reaching this number is Brian Daboll’s reliance on running the ball. Their success offensively is centered around running back Saquan Barkley, who just signed a contract extension. The Giants finished last season with 520 rushing attempts, good for eighth most in the league.
Jones had a career season running the football, tallying 120 carries for 708 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Daboll had a clear goal on offense last year, pounding the ball on the ground with limited turnovers.
That said, new TE Darren Waller comes to New York via trade from the Las Vegas Raiders, and when healthy, he’s one of the most explosive and dynamic tight ends in the league. The addition of Waller opens up the redzone play calling for Daboll and allows him to put more faith in Jones’ arm rather than his legs.
Vikings RB ALEXANDER MATTISON
Dalvin Cook‘s departure to the Jets leaves Mattison with big shoes to fill this upcoming season. In March, the Vikings agreed on a two-year extension with Mattison, worth up to $8 million if incentives are reached:
- $250,000 for 750-999 rushing yards
- Another $250,000 for 1,000 rushing yards
There are no noteworthy changes to Minnesota’s offensive coaching staff in 2023, as the head coach and offensive coordinator from a year ago are still intact. Mattison’s rushing yards prop for the season sits at a mere yards.
Despite his former teammate Cook tallying 1,000 rushing yards in four straight seasons, there’s a valid concern that Mattison will not.
Kevin O’Connell‘s offense relies on the passing game, as evidenced by the Vikings’ third-most pass attempts in the league a year ago. O’Connell’s lack of interest to run, coupled with Minnesota being a prime regression candidate and possibly trailing more in games, make Mattison’s over his rushing yards prop undesirable based on NFL contract incentives alone.
Patriots WR jUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER
The most intriguing NFL contract incentives we’ll discuss is JuJu Smith Schuster‘s. Fresh off a Super Bowl victory, JuJu inked a three-year deal with the Patriots with a few incentives for the 2023 season:
- $750,000 for 950 or more receiving yards
- Another $750,000 for 1,100 receiving yards
While the veteran receiver has only eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards once in his career, there’s optimism surrounding New England’s offense for the upcoming season. Belichick brought in his old friend Bill O’Brien to be the offensive coordinator this upcoming year in hopes the change puts the offense back on track. O’Brien had spent the last two seasons at Alabama as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Before that, he spent seven seasons as Texans head coach.
To elevate New England’s offense, O’Brien will be looking to unlock JuJu’s full potential and get him back to his 2018 form. His second year in the NFL with the Steelers saw Smith-Schuster lead the NFL in YAC with 660 yards.
With Matt Patricia as offensive coordinator, the Patriots tried attacking downfield more than they have in the past, with little success. The insertion of O’Brien as OC should help the Patriots’ offense tremendously, specifically in attacking the middle of the field and getting yards after catch. Thus, JuJu’s receiving yards prop of yards is incredibly enticing to the over with O’Brien at the helm.
The ask of JuJu will mostly stay the same from a year ago in Kansas City where he tallied 933 yards, including 463 after the catch.
FINAL THOUGHTS on season-long props & contract incentives
NFL contract incentives should never be your sole reason to place a bet. There should be additional reasoning behind your decision to bet on season-long props. With this in mind, contract incentives could be motivation if a player is nearing an incentive at the end of the season. Remember these incentives when the season is nearing its end. Best of luck betting season-long props!
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