2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Why The Favorite Is Vulnerable

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on August 30, 2022
nfl comeback player odds

Before betting on NFL Comeback Player odds, it’s important to understand how the media that votes on this award has operated in recent years. We need to know the reasoning behind past award winners maybe more than our opinons of the Comeback Player of the Year candidates. This will help us in handicapping who we think may win (or not win) in 2022.

And when you see how many RBs are near the top of the board this year but how few have won it this century, you may want to place a bet.

NFL Comeback Player odds

These are the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state to win NFL CPOY. Click on the odds to bet now. Read on for analysis of the market.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year History

Before making any awards bet, it is pivotal to understand who has already won that award and why. One of the challenges in this analysis is that football is played differently today than it was 15 years ago, and we do not want outdated or irrelevant information infecting the process of our bets.

Studying, for example, NFL MVP campaigns from 2000-2010 aren’t helping us much in making better bets this awards season. We want to focus more on recent trends that have taken place during the current era of NFL football.

Here are some facts about previous winners of the “CPOY” award. Since 2010, here is the position breakdown of the winners:

  • 7 quarterbacks
  • 2 wide receivers
  • 1 tight end
  • 1 safety

Nine of the last 12 CPOY winners were coming off an injury from the previous season. Chiefs safety Eric Berry returned after beating cancer in 2015, and Ryan Tannehill had a bounce-back year after an injury in 2018, which resulted in his 2019 CPOY win.

Eleven of the last 12 CPOY winners played for teams with winning records, while Alex Smith was the only one who won the award with a losing record. Keenan Allen’s 9-7 Chargers in 2017 were the only team in this group that did not make the playoffs.

Garrison Hearst was the last running back to win the CPOY in 2001. Just like the MVP award usually goes to a quarterback, we can cross off with confidence RB as potential suitors for our CPOY picks. It is interesting to note that many of the betting favorites for the CPOY award in 2022 are in fact running backs (Mccaffrey, Henry, Barkley). This may present us with some edge, and perhaps value for our CPOY picks.

Based on this history, here are some players that emerge as strong candidates from NFL Comeback Player odds:

Saints QB Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston effectively operated as a high-efficiency game manager before tearing his ACL in Week 8. He was on pace for career bests in TD Rate (8.7%), INT Rate (1.9%), and QB Rating (102.8) before the injury. Winston’s weapons heading into 2022 are a massive upgrade with 11th overall pick Chris Olave, Michael Thomas finally set for return, and Jarvis Landry added in 11 personnel. Beat reports indicate Winston looks well conditioned and successfully rehabbed. While Sean Payton’s departure isn’t positive, OC Pete Carmichael learned from Payton in 2006 and 2012 when he coordinated the Saints to a top-three scoring offense. We know Winston can put up huge statistical numbers as he did in 2019, putting up 5,109 yards passing.

Panthers QB Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield joined Peyton Manning (1998-00) and Andrew Luck (2012-14) as the only players in NFL history to record at least 3,500 passing yards, and at least 20 touchdown passes in each of their first three seasons. Mayfield is two years removed from an 11-5 finish and a playoff run with Cleveland. In a fully healthy 2020 campaign, Mayfield finished top 10 in vital efficiency statistics, including play-action completion percentage, deep-ball completion percentage, and red-zone completion percentage. The former number one overall pick gets a fresh start in 2022 with Carolina.

Saints WR Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas reported to 2022 training camp in great shape and is cleared to practice in full after missing nearly all of the past two seasons due to ankle surgery. The bull case for Thomas is clear. When he was fully healthy in 2019, he displayed that he could be the number one wide receiver in all of football. Thomas produced top-three finishes in targets, yards after the catch, receptions, and receiving yards in 2019.

He did pick up a hamstring injury late in the preseason, which should be monitored.

Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu Smith-Schuster landed in Kansas City on a one-year, $3.25 million deal after a forgettable 2021 season in Pittsburgh, where he averaged 1.32 yards per route run before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. JuJu is still only 25 years old, and in 2022, Smith-Schuster gets a change of scenery and a vast quarterback upgrade from the late-career shell of Ben Roethlisberger to in-prime Patrick Mahomes. In 2018, JuJu finished top five in routes run, targets, receiving yards, and receptions. 

Rams WR Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson landed a three-year, $46.5 million deal from the Rams after an inefficient 2021 campaign in Chicago.  Behind Kupp, Robinson’s target competition has been shortened by Van Jefferson’s ongoing knee woes, Odell Beckhams’ departure, and Robert Woods’ departure. Even at the age of 28, Robinson is still an elite-level talent that will be getting by far the best quarterback play of his career. Robinson displayed how productive he can still be with lousy quarterback play, when he put up top five finishes in routes run, targets, and receptions in 2020.

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Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

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