Every NFL Head Coach, Coordinator Change For 2023 Season
The 2022 NFL season was a disaster for the Denver Broncos. They mortgaged their future for star Russell Wilson and hired supposed QB guru Nathaniel Hackett, but finished last place in the AFC West at just 5-12. Coaching malpractice was at the forefront of headlines throughout the season. Every year teams gamble on coaching hires – some of which pay off (Doug Pederson) while others don’t (Hackett). This past NFL offseason had no shortage of coaching changes, many of which will have dramatic impacts on betting odds.
But it’s not just head coaches that can make or break a season. The Chicago Bears hired Luke Getsy, the passing coordinator for the Packers, ahead of last season. The Bears and sophomore QB Justin Fields got off to a slow start, but Getsy tweaked the offensive system and turned Fields into one of the most effective players on the field by Week 6.
Which head coach and coordinator hires will impact NFL odds the most this year? Let’s take a look at all the coaching and coordinator changes ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Head Coaching Changes
| Team | New Hire | Hired From | Replacing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | Sean Payton | former Saints HC | Nathaniel Hackett |
| Cardinals | Jonathan Gannon | Eagles DC | Kliff Kingsbury |
| Colts | Shane Steichen | Eagles OC | Frank Reich |
| Panthers | Frank Reich | Colts HC | Matt Rhule |
| Texans | Demeco Ryans | 49ers DC | Lovie Smith |
The two most dramatic hires in terms of changes are likely to be Sean Payton and Shane Steichen. The Broncos had to further mortgage future draft picks to hire Payton, who was still technically under contract with the Saints. The 2010 Super Bowl champion has experience working with undersized QBs (Drew Brees) and brings a sense of direction to a team that looked lost last season. Above all, Payton brings a new culture to the Broncos organization.
While Payton brings a new tone to his team, Steichen will likely revamp the way Indianapolis knows how to play football. The Colts bring in their first ultra-mobile QB – rookie Anthony Richardson – succeeding a long line of pocket passers that predates the Colts in their current city. Steichen led Jalen Hurts to MVP-worthy numbers behind a unique system that fully utilized his mobility. The Colts were among the NFL’s least-efficient offenses (31st in success rate, only to Houston); expect that to change in a dramatic way this year.
These two coaches’ impacts on their teams differ wildly. Payton brings a higher confidence in Denver futures: their win total and Super Bowl odds. Steichen brings a new offense to Indianapolis that may be worth looking at overs earlier on in the season.
Head Coaches Calling Their Own Offensive Plays
- Zac Taylor, Bengals (4)
- Mike McCarthy, Cowboys (13 — Kellen Moore called plays last year)
- Arthur Smith, Falcons (11)
- Doug Pederson, Jaguars (5)
- Kevin O’Connell, Vikings (8)
(2022 success rate rank in parentheses)
Offensive Coordinator Hires
| Team | New Hire | Hired From | Replacing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | Joe Lombardi | Chargers OC | Justin Outten |
| Buccaneers | Dave Canales | Seahawks QBs | Byron Leftwich |
| Cardinals | Drew Petzing | Browns QBs | Kliff Kingsbury |
| Chargers | Kellen Moore | Cowboys OC | Joe Lombardi |
| Chiefs | Matt Nagy | Internal hire (QBs) | Eric Bieniemy |
| Colts | Jim Bob Cooter | Jaguars passing game | Marcus Brady |
| Commanders | Eric Bieniemy | Chiefs OC | Scott Turner |
| Cowboys | Brian Schottenheimer* | Internal hire (PGC) | Kellen Moore |
| Eagles | Brian Johnson | Internal hire (QBs) | Shane Steichen |
| Jets | Nathaniel Hackett | Broncos HC | Mike LaFleur |
| Panthers | Thomas Brown | Rams assistant HC | Ben McAdoo |
| Patriots | Bill O’Brien | Alabama OC | Matt Patricia |
| Rams | Mike LaFleur | Jets OC | Liam Coen |
| Ravens | Todd Monken | Georgia OC | Greg Roman |
| Texans | Bobby Slowik | 49ers passing game | Pep Hamilton |
| Titans | Tim Kelly | Internal Hire (PGC) | Todd Downing |
Half of the entire NFL turned over their offensive coordinator position this offseason. The most notable name to move is Eric Bieniemy, who won two Super Bowls with the Chiefs. Perhaps a “prove-it” move for Bieniemy, he now goes from a Patrick Mahomes-led offense with the assistance of Andy Reid to one potentially led by Sam Howell and a team on their way to competing for the first overall pick. There’s no doubt – Beiniemy brings a new approach to offense following a year which Washington finished 25th in offense.
Hackett landed on his feet, being reunited with Aaron Rodgers on the Jets. Despite a roster packed with talent, the Jets had the worst QB situation in the NFL last season and finished a paltry 29th in scoring. While Hackett and Rodgers bring a newfound optimism to the Jets’ offense, beware inflated point totals to begin the season. Sportsbooks have been pushing Jets season-long props since the day Rodgers got to town.
Todd Monken should also bring newfound optimism to the Ravens offense this season. Departed OC Greg Roman was the cause for plenty of headaches throughout the last three years in Baltimore, ultimately being dismissed in 2022. The Ravens finished second in rushing success rate, but just 20th in scoring. Monken led Georgia to back-to-back National Championships behind an offense that helped players over-perform. It’s a more vertical system that still grounds itself in the run game.
Of the group, Monken may have the biggest impact on betting odds this year. Sportsbooks may overcompensate for the revamped Commanders’ and Jets’ offenses, but react more slowly to the Ravens. Baltimore begins their season against the Texans, Bengals, and Colts.
Potential Upgrades
Defined as: Fired the previous coordinator and hired a new one without the turnover of head coach. (Offensive success rate per play allowed in parentheses.)
- Dave Canales, Buccaneers (20)
- Kellen Moore, Chargers (18)
- Eric Bieniemy, Commanders (26)
- Nathaniel Hackett, Jets (31)
- Bill O’Brien, Patriots (25)
- Todd Monken, Ravens (12)
- Tim Kelly, Titans (22)
Defensive Coordinator Hires
| Team | New Hire | Hired From | Replacing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | Steve Wilks | Panthers DC | Demeco Ryans |
| Broncos | Vance Joseph | Cardinals DC | Ejiro Evero |
| Cardinals | Nick Rallis | Eagles assistant DC | Vance Joseph |
| Chargers | Derrick Ansley | Internal hire (DBs) | Renaldo Hill |
| Dolphins | Vic Fangio | former Broncos HC | Josh Boyer |
| Eagles | Sean Desai | Seahawks assistant HC | Jonathan Gannon |
| Falcons | Ryan Nielsen | Saints DL | Dean Pees |
| Panthers | Ejiro Evero | Broncos DC | Al Holcomb |
| Texans | Matt Burke | Cardinals DL | Lovie Smith |
| Vikings | Brian Flores | Steelers LBs | Ed Donatell |
*Note: Bills DC Leslie Frazier is “taking a year off” from coaching. The team has not announced a replacement and a defensive coordinator is not listed on the team website.
Not as dramatic as the offensive coordinator carousel, six teams fired their defensive coordinators following the 2022 season. Two lost theirs to head coaching spots (49ers, Eagles), and one lost theirs to retirement (Falcons).
The name that jumps off the page first is Vic Fangio, one of the most influential defensive schemers in recent NFL memory. He’ll almost certainly elevate pass rushers like Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb, who missed much of last year battling injuries, with a more aggressive and creative approach to blitzing. Miami blitzed with the third-most frequency in 2022, but generated just the 17th-most pressure on opposing QBs. The addition of Fangio will improve that efficiency. The Dolphins also traded for Jalen Ramsey this offseason and should be one of the most improved units in the league.
Brian Flores brings a tonal shift to Minnesota. He takes over for a defense that allowed the third-most points per game in 2022. In losses last season, the Vikings surrendered 34 points per game, including allowing 40+ in two of those losses. The maligned Flores brings a culture from Pittsburgh – where he coached last year – and an upbringing in the Patriots system. There is no doubt that, even without the best players in the NFL, the Vikings will be significantly improved on defense from a year ago.
Although sportsbooks know Flores is in charge, they may be hesitant to bring down totals at the start of the season with last year’s results still fresh in mind. There may be opportunity to bet unders with this coordinator change early on if markets are slow to adjust.
Potential Upgrades
These NFL coaching changes defined as: fired the previous coordinator and hired a new one without the turnover of head coach. (Defensive success rate per play allowed in parentheses.)
- Derrick Ansley, Chargers (17)
- Vic Fangio, Dolphins (15)
- Brian Flores, Vikings (25)
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