NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell Rising
As Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniels was on the bye week, we saw the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds tighten. The Vikings moved to 2-0 with Josh Dobbs under center, and Kevin O’Connell has entered the COY race. Can he catch Dan Campbell with the job he’s done in Detroit? Let’s dissect COY odds and see if the Vikings coach can win.
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The Favorite: Dan Campbell
For reference, bettors could’ve locked in Dan Campbell for NFL Coach of the Year at +1200 over the summer at DraftKings Sportsbook. Campbell is now the favorite at all sportsbooks, given the Lion’s 7-2 record. If they topple the Eagles and secure the NFC’s top seed, he’s likely to win the award.
The Lions were projected to be good before the season and were odds-on favorite to win the NFC North division. Expectations were already high in Detroit, and this award is commonly given to coaches who exceed lower expectations, like Brian Daboll last year and Matt Nagy in 2018.
Campbell’s path is similar to Mike Vrabel’s in 2018. The Titans finished with a 12-5 record and secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and as a result, Vrabel took home COY. If the Lions steal the No. 1 seed, Campbell will likely win COY. For reference, the Lions have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule remaining, with two matchups against the Bears and one against the Packers and Broncos.
Here is the Lions upcoming schedule:
Stock Rising: KEVIN O’CONNELL
The Vikings’ head coach headlines our biggest mover of the week. The Vikings rattled off their fifth-straight victory over the Saints on Sunday afternoon. Before kickoff, O’Connell was priced at +1400 to win Coach of the Year at FanDuel and BetMGM Sportsbook. Those books didn’t move the price much, but DraftKings gave O’Connell more respect and moved him to +750.
O’Connell’s path to winning the award is one of a coach who exceeds expectations. The Vikings’ win total was set at a mere 7.5 before the season began. The 13-4 team we saw a year ago was a prime regression candidate, given their point differential of -3 a season ago.
Their season was primarily viewed as being done when Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles in the team’s Week 8 victory over Green Bay.
Then, the trade for Josh Dobbs happened. Dobbs has since led the team to a come-from-behind win against the Falcons and a 27-19 victory over the Saints.
As a result, the O’Connell COY number has been on the move. O’Connell will have his case for NFL Coach of the Year if the Vikings exceed expectations and sneak into the playoffs. He may need the Eagles to hold off the Lions to fully secure the award.
Here is the Vikings upcoming schedule:
Longshots worth mentioning
Antonio Pierce
The Raiders interim coach has moved to 2-0 after the team’s abysmal start to the season under former coach Josh McDaniels. The team was a laughingstock, and now they’re squarely in the playoff hunt with their 5-5 record. That said, their last two wins have come against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson. In the previous two weeks, the Las Vegas defense ranks third in EPA, behind only San Fransisco and Cleveland. The real test for them begins with the Dolphins and Chiefs looming in the next two weeks.
Pierce’s path is one where a coach gets the team over the hump and exceeds expectations. For reference, the Raiders team win total was 7.5 or 6.5 wins, depending on when you bet it. If Pierce can guide them over those numbers, perhaps even a playoff berth, he could find himself in the mix at season’s end. It wouldn’t be the first time a Raiders interim coach was mentioned for COTY.
In 2021, Rich Bisaccia got three votes for COTY and finished third behind Vrabel and Matt LaFleur. Perhaps Pierce only gets a few votes, falls short of Campbell or O’Connell, and finishes third like Bisaccia in 2021. If Pierce took home the award, it wouldn’t be the first time an interim coach won. Bruce Arians won the award in 2012 when filling in for Chuck Pagano, who was diagnosed with cancer. The Colts finished the season 11-5 and notched a playoff berth under rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. Pierce faces an uphill battle to win this award, but interim coaches have been given credit to voters before.
Currently, the +5000 at FanDuel Sportsbook is the only place you can find Pierce for COY.
Here is the Raiders upcoming schedule:
Mike Tomlin
The Steelers need to win the North for him to truly have a case for COTY. Before kickoff on Sunday, FanDuel Sportsbook had Tomlin priced at +2100 for this award; now, that price currently sits at +1400. The interesting thing here is that Pittsburgh is the only team in the AFC that is undefeated in their division. In fact, the other teams in the AFC North all have two losses in the division. I remain skeptical of the Steelers as a whole, given their opponents have outgained them in each of their wins and that their point differential sits at -26. They’re beginning to look like a lucky team rather than a good one.
Ultimately, I’m not sure if Tomlin can win if the Lions dethrone the Eagles for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but he’ll certainly be in the conversation if he can guide the Steelers to a division crown over Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and a nasty Browns defense. Best of luck betting on the NFL Coach of the Year!
Here is the Steelers upcoming schedule:
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