Finding Value In NFL Coach Of The Year Odds

Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 4, 2022
NFL Coach of the Year Odds

In the first of TheLines’ NFL betting series for futures markets, our staff discusses their favorite bets on 2022 NFL Coach of the Year odds. Historical perspective is provided as well, considering the betting market first opened ahead of the 2015 season.

Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.

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2022 NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Brandon Staley
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+1400
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+1400
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+1600
Nathaniel Hackett
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+1600
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+1600
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+1600
Mike McDaniel
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+1600
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+2000
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+1600
Dan Campbell
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+1800
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+1600
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+1200
Brian Daboll
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+1800
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+1400
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+1200
Sean McDermott
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+1800
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+3000
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+2500
Nick Sirianni
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+1800
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+2000
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+1600
Doug Pederson
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+1800
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+1600
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+1600
Josh McDaniels
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+1800
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+2000
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+1600
Bill Belichick
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+2000
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+3000
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+2500
Kevin O'Connell
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+2000
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+1600
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+1400
Frank Reich
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+2000
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+2000
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+2000
Kyle Shanahan
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+2000
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+2000
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+1600
Zac Taylor
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+2000
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+3000
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+3000
Kevin Stefanski
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+2200
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+2000
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+2200
Mike Vrabel
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+2500
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+2500
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+3000
John Harbaugh
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+2500
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+2500
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+2500
Todd Bowles
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+2500
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+4000
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+3000
Matt Lafleur
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+2500
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+2000
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+2200
Sean McVay
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+2500
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+3000
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+2500
Robert Saleh
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+2800
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+2500
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+2500
Ron Rivera
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+2800
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+2500
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+3500
Kliff Kingsburgy
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+2800
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+3000
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+3500
Andy Reid
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+2800
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+4000
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+3500
Mike Tomlin
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+3000
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+3000
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+2000
Dennis Allen
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+3000
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+2500
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+2500

NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Betting History

YearCoachTeamRecordPrevious Season's RecordOdds
2021Mike VrabelTennessee Titans12-511-5+2500
2020Kevin StefanskiCleveland Browns11-56-10+2000
2019John HarbaughBaltimore Ravens14-210-6+2800
2018Matt NagyChicago Bears12-45-11+2000
2017Sean McVayLos Angeles Rams11-54-12+5000
2016Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys13-34-12+2800
2015Ron RiveraCarolina Panthers15-17-8+4000

Eli Hershkovich

With the exception of the 2021 injury-riddled Titans and the 2019 Ravens, which made a major leap under then-league MVP Lamar Jackson, this award has gone to a coach who guided a significant improvement for a playoff team.

Even though I haven’t placed a bet in this betting market yet, a couple names are worth considering.

While the Chargers’ win total is set at , Brandon Staley is the rightful favorite at DraftKings (+1400). Not only is his defense in position to take a leap with the additions of Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson and Kyle Van Noy, but it’s paired up with a dynamic offense and Justin Herbert (fourth-shortest NFL MVP odds) at the helm.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Assuming Los Angeles delivers a wild-card berth or even knocks off Kansas City from atop the AFC West standings, his odds are certainly priced correctly.

Plus, Saints coach Dennis Allen (+3000) deserves a mention, as the narrative surrounding him will be relevant if New Orleans enters the playoff picture after losing a fixture on the sidelines in Sean Payton. Couple that with an elite defense and a seemingly healthier offense, and Allen should be squarely in the mix.

This bet also boils down to whether you’re a believer in Jameis Winston off a torn ACL ⁠— minus an excellent schemer in Payton at his side ⁠— and Michael Thomas (ankle) returning to form. With that said, the Saints added veteran Jarvis Landry and first-round pick Chris Olave to compliment Thomas, along with drafting left tackle Travis Penning at No. 17 overall to replace Terron Armstead. They even retained long-time offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr.

With Winston & Co. possessing a win total of , there’s room for a potential buy-low opportunity as well.

Stephen Andress

Since 2010, Mike Vrabel cashed in the first NFL Coach of the Year odds on a team with a double-digit win total. Nevertheless, that win total of 10.5 was also the first-ever 17-game campaign while overcoming numerous injuries in the process, as Eli mentioned.

Keep in mind, all but the last two coaches of the year in that span exceeded their win total by four-plus games. Moreover, all but one NFL Coach of the Year since 2010 had a win total of at least seven victories.

So I’m looking for candidates on teams in that 7-9.5 win total range with strong potential upward mobility. It turns out the three head coaches with the easiest schedules by opponent win totals fall in this range.

Frank Reich and the Colts have the third-easiest schedule by this measure, Nick Sirianni’s Eagles are No. 2, and Brian Daboll with the Giants has the easiest. Any of those three would be decent bets, but Frank Reich (+2000) has the longest odds. He may have the best chance at an elite season with the only reliable +CPOE QB in place of those three, too.

Mo Nuwwarah

I can’t believe what I’m typing, but couldn’t the Jaguars compete for a playoff spot this year? Well, if you don’t believe me, consider that the betting market has them to make the playoffs. Underdogs of that size cash on a daily basis, so seeing Jacksonville play in mid-January actually wouldn’t be that crazy.

Although the odds on the Jags topping the AFC South are a bit longer at , playing in a weaker division helps.

Whatever you think about the efficiency of the Jags’ offseason spending spree, there’s no doubt they brought in solid veterans at several different positions to upgrade this pitiful roster. For lack of better way to put it, just having some adults in the room and a proven winning coach in Doug Pederson could pay dividends.

As an added bonus, everyone knows how awful Urban Meyer, who was fired in the middle of last season, left the situation. That creates an easy narrative that Pederson cleaned up a toxic mess. He’s the type of coach who, like Staley, can put his stamp on games with aggressive decision-making as well.

On top of that, I believed in Trevor Lawrence big-time coming out of the 2021 NFL Draft. One awful season under the worst coach in recent memory doesn’t change that. The pieces exist for competency here if Lawrence plays to his talent.

I could see him leading the team to a better record than its talent level in a weak division a la early Andrew Luck. Certainly, the win total of fits what Stephen’s looking for in a squad with upward mobility.

If the Jags can find their way to the playoffs, I don’t see how Pederson (+1800) doesn’t make a top-three case here.

Brett Gibbons

The Vikings’ last two seasons have fallen under “disappointment” for one reason or another. During that span, Mike Zimmer totaled a 15-18 record and missed the playoffs twice. Now, the offensive-oriented Kevin O’Connell steps in from the Sean McVay tree – a lineage we’ve seen hit more than once (Matt LaFleur, Zac Taylor, Staley). Just making the playoffs might be enough for O’Connell (+2000) to win the award.

His odds are among the longest of the chic NFL Coach of the Year bets, like Staley and Daboll.

Given his access to one of the NFL’s top receivers in Justin Jefferson and explosive playmaking overall (12th-highest EPA per play last season), the Vikings should be in position to win games this year. Their win total varies at books, but tops out at 9.5 at both FanDuel and BetMGM.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Minnesota is right in the middle of the pack in strength of schedule (No. 16). However, they close out the regular season with a six-game stretch that includes the Jets, Lions, Giants, and Bears. A strong finish to the season should warrant votes for O’Connell, especially if the postseason is on the line.

Continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, where bettors discuss their favorite NFL bets, strategies and research. Follow TheLines on Twitter, too.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich