NFL Coach of the Year Odds: The Path For Saints’ Dennis Allen

Written By Eli Hershkovich on July 27, 2023

With the NFL season less than two months away, TheLines.com staff has begun unveiling our favorite futures wagers. My portfolio kicked off with Ravens’ Super Bowl odds. This time, let’s dissect the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds. I’m bullish on a handful of New Orleans Saints odds, and Who Dat Nation coach Dennis Allen particularly interests me here. Before explaining why, some context is warranted past Coach of the Year history.

Click on any of the odds below to place a wager from the best sports betting sites, plus Week 1 odds. Prices listed are the best available in your state.

NFL Coach of the Year History

Year	Coach	Team	Record	Previous Year’s Record	Odds
2022	Brian Daboll	New York Giants	9-7-1	4-13	+1400
2021	Mike Vrabel	Tennessee Titans	12-5	11-5	+2500
2020	Kevin Stefanski	Cleveland Browns	11-5	6-10	+2000
2019	John Harbaugh	Baltimore Ravens	14-2	10-6	+2800
2018	Matt Nagy	Chicago Bears	12-4	5-11	+2000
2017	Sean McVay	Los Angeles Rams	11-5	4-12	+5000
2016	Jason Garrett	Dallas Cowboys	13-3	4-12	+2800
2015	Ron Rivera	Carolina Panthers	15-1	7-8	+4000

What Stands Out?

An assortment of these names were first-year coaches who helped orchestrate a significant turnaround en route to the playoffs. However, there are a few exceptions.

Mike Vrabel’s injury-riddled Titans in 2021, John Harbaugh’s Ravens two years prior — with NFL MVP Lamar Jackson — and Jason Garrett’s Cowboys in 2016. If the latter coach doesn’t explain things well enough, let’s spell it out. The award doesn’t always go to the best coach.

Many of these names are also offensive-oriented coaches. Generally speaking, that side of the ball is more difficult to improve. Hence, coaches accomplish this feat less often. Shane Steichen fits this mold perfectly if Colts odds and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson exceed expectations. Richardson, one of the betting favorites among NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, isn’t a lock to start from day one. He’ll likely be weaved into his fair share of packages designed around him, though, if he is not the Week 1 starter.

There’s another factor hidden between the lines: positive injury luck. While head coaches don’t deserve credit for sustaining a healthy roster, they’ll receive praise if their team improves and is healthier than the previous season.

Appraising Dennis Allen’s odds

Plenty of bettors have flocked towards Falcons odds, shrinking their NFC South odds from +350 to . Nevertheless, New Orleans is better suited for a bounce-back season.

Not only are the Saints in a second-rate division, but they also added a seemingly stable quarterback in Derek Carr (13th-ranked dropback EPA in 2022). Their defense was much-improved in the latter half of the campaign as well. Granted, this unit lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and David Onyemata. It still showcases Cam Jordan, though, while reeling in Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd via team-friendly contracts.

Additionally, four of the Saints’ losses came by four points or fewer. Hoarding the second-worst turnover luck (-11) and a myriad of injuries didn’t help.

In 2023, New Orleans owns arguably the easiest schedule across the NFL. Take a peak at last year’s EPA rankings, and Carr is set to face the second-easiest schedule — as it concerns opposing pass defenses.

If the Saints’ banged-up core personnel (Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Maye) and fresh-faced pieces (Trevor Penning, Pete Werner, D’Marco Jackson, Smoke Monday) gain positive injury luck, they’ll clear over victories among NFL win totals.

Thus, Saints odds could be considered an appealing longshot for Super Bowl odds. But in regards to this betting market in particular, Allen will find himself firmly in the mix for the NFL Coach of the Year award if these variables come to fruition. Despite the concerns over his game management, he was considered a warranted candidate just one year ago in NFL Coach of the Year odds after Sean Payton “retired.”

NFL Futures Wagers	Odds	Units
Ravens To Win Super Bowl 58	+2500	0.75
Dennis Allen To Win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year	+2500	0.15
Bengals Under 11.5 Wins	-120	1.20

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