NFL Coach of the Year Odds: The Path For Saints’ Dennis Allen
With the NFL season less than two months away, TheLines.com staff has begun unveiling our favorite futures wagers. My portfolio kicked off with Ravens’ Super Bowl odds. This time, let’s dissect the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year odds. I’m bullish on a handful of New Orleans Saints odds, and Who Dat Nation coach Dennis Allen particularly interests me here. Before explaining why, some context is warranted past Coach of the Year history.
NFL Coach of the Year History
|Year||Coach||Team||Record||Previous Year’s Record||Odds|
|2022||Brian Daboll||New York Giants||9-7-1||4-13||+1400|
|2021||Mike Vrabel||Tennessee Titans||12-5||11-5||+2500|
|2020||Kevin Stefanski||Cleveland Browns||11-5||6-10||+2000|
|2019||John Harbaugh||Baltimore Ravens||14-2||10-6||+2800|
|2018||Matt Nagy||Chicago Bears||12-4||5-11||+2000|
|2017||Sean McVay||Los Angeles Rams||11-5||4-12||+5000|
|2016||Jason Garrett||Dallas Cowboys||13-3||4-12||+2800|
|2015||Ron Rivera||Carolina Panthers||15-1||7-8||+4000|
What Stands Out?
An assortment of these names were first-year coaches who helped orchestrate a significant turnaround en route to the playoffs. However, there are a few exceptions.
Mike Vrabel’s injury-riddled Titans in 2021, John Harbaugh’s Ravens two years prior — with NFL MVP Lamar Jackson — and Jason Garrett’s Cowboys in 2016. If the latter coach doesn’t explain things well enough, let’s spell it out. The award doesn’t always go to the best coach.
Many of these names are also offensive-oriented coaches. Generally speaking, that side of the ball is more difficult to improve. Hence, coaches accomplish this feat less often. Shane Steichen fits this mold perfectly if Colts odds and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson exceed expectations. Richardson, one of the betting favorites among NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, isn’t a lock to start from day one. He’ll likely be weaved into his fair share of packages designed around him, though, if he is not the Week 1 starter.
There’s another factor hidden between the lines: positive injury luck. While head coaches don’t deserve credit for sustaining a healthy roster, they’ll receive praise if their team improves and is healthier than the previous season.
Appraising Dennis Allen’s odds
Not only are the Saints in a second-rate division, but they also added a seemingly stable quarterback in Derek Carr (13th-ranked dropback EPA in 2022). Their defense was much-improved in the latter half of the campaign as well. Granted, this unit lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and David Onyemata. It still showcases Cam Jordan, though, while reeling in Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd via team-friendly contracts.
Additionally, four of the Saints’ losses came by four points or fewer. Hoarding the second-worst turnover luck (-11) and a myriad of injuries didn’t help.
In 2023, New Orleans owns arguably the easiest schedule across the NFL. Take a peak at last year’s EPA rankings, and Carr is set to face the second-easiest schedule — as it concerns opposing pass defenses.
If the Saints’ banged-up core personnel (Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Maye) and fresh-faced pieces (Trevor Penning, Pete Werner, D’Marco Jackson, Smoke Monday) gain positive injury luck, they’ll clear over victories among NFL win totals.
Thus, Saints odds could be considered an appealing longshot for Super Bowl odds. But in regards to this betting market in particular, Allen will find himself firmly in the mix for the NFL Coach of the Year award if these variables come to fruition. Despite the concerns over his game management, he was considered a warranted candidate just one year ago in NFL Coach of the Year odds after Sean Payton “retired.”
|NFL Futures Wagers||Odds||Units|
|Ravens To Win Super Bowl 58||+2500||0.75|
|Dennis Allen To Win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year||+2500||0.15|
|Bengals Under 11.5 Wins||-120||1.20|
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