NFL Coach Of The Year Odds: Can Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur Win?
While Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell remains the unanimous favorite for 2023 NFL Coach of the Year across sportsbook odds, Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is creeping into the race in those futures as Week 14 odds hit the board. Two other coaches from the AFC South are putting together strong campaigns, too. Let’s dissect COY odds and see if the Packers’ head man can win.
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the contender: Demeco Ryans
We’ve all operated under the assumption that Campbell would win Coach of the Year, but I remain skeptical that he should be the favorite. Houston’s win total sat at a mere 5.5 wins before the season began, and the Over cashed before Thanksgiving. This team has wildly exceeded expectations. So, Ryans would fit the path in that regard. Matt Nagy and Brian Daboll recently won this award by exceeding low expectations and getting their teams into the playoffs.
The problem for Ryans is two-fold. C.J. Stroud is going to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the defense isn’t doing anything noteworthy. The Texans’ defense ranks 18th in EPA, which coincidently is the same ranking they held last year when they finished 3-13-1. Last year’s team finished third in the NFL in takeaways with 27, while this year’s team is sitting at fifth with 18 takeaways. Ryans may get some credit if he leads this team to the playoffs, but he ultimately may not receive credit from the voters when it comes time to vote on coach of the year.
Will Anderson could also become an issue for Ryans if he gains on Jalen Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Anderson already has one more sack than Carter on the season and is facing a Jets offensive line this week that ranks 27th in pass block win rate. This metric quantifies the offensive lineman’s ability to sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer. If he can surpass Carter over the coming weeks for DROY, I struggle to believe that voters will give Ryans and the Texans a third award.
Texans Upcoming Schedule
STOCK RISING: MATT LAFLEUR
While Demeco Ryans remains the obvious candidate to take down Campbell for Coach Of The Year, LaFleur is a sneaky candidate to win the award. His path is similar to Ryans. He guides a team hoping to “exceed expectations.” The Packers win total was only set at 7.5 before the season began and now sits at .
In the preseason, Jordan Love was talked about in betting circles as a “Lovable Longshot” for NFL MVP. That idea has unfortunately fallen short, despite Love notching the No. 5 EPA+CPOE composite and the third-best EPA per play since Week 7. The more realistic path for Green Bay to receive recognition is in the coach of the year market. Green Bay has been riddled with injuries to key players such as David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, and Christian Watson (again).
Despite these injuries, Love has steadily progressed and has the Packers on the verge of making the playoffs. Should they surpass their current win total of 9.5 and make the playoffs, I think LaFleur will get recognition and can topple Campbell for this award.
The Lions were expected to be good this season. The Packers were not. It’s time we give LaFleur the credit he deserves; he did just beat Patrick Mahomes and a top-five pass defense.
Packers Upcoming Schedule:
DON’T YOU FORGET ABOUT ME: Shane Steichen
All of the points I just made for Matt LaFluer could also me made for the Colts head coach:
- low preseason expectations
- overcoming a lot of injuries on the roster
- making the playoffs
Like LaFleur, Steichen fits the mold of the Brian Daboll-type candidate this season. Also like the Packers (), the Colts () are now favored to make the postseason after a thrilling overtime win in Tennessee.
Colts Upcoming Schedule
FINAL THOUGHTS ON NFL COACH OF THE YEAR Odds
At the end of the season, we may see a situation unfold where the Colts, Texans, and Packers have exceeded expectations and wind up in the playoffs. If that plays out, any of these coaches can edge out Campbell for Coach of the Year, but I’d give the nod to LaFleur.
I’ve placed a bet on Matt LaFleur to win Coach of the Year at +3300 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Best of luck betting on NFL Coach of the Year odds!
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