Super Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs always make for alluring bets — among NFL playoffs odds or any other market. Yet, determining the “right” ones across NFL betting sites is a difficult proposition, especially within a truncated slate of games. Below are two teams to consider if you normally throw some pizza money on moneyline or same game parlays. This two-team parlay isn’t on my betting card. You can read my Super Wild Card best bets column for those picks.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The odds listed below are the best available in your state.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs

Regarding the point spread, the Chiefs quickly rose from 1.5-point favorites to above the key number of a field goal. Given the narrative of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa performing poorly in inadequate weather, along with their banged-up defense, the market move was somewhat reasonable. Bear in mind that linebackers Jerome Baker, Cameron Goode, and Andrew Van Ginkel were all placed on injured reserve on Tuesday.

However, the potential return of tailback Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) lends Miami a higher probability of successfully draining the clock and pulling off the road upset. Mostert averaged 0.07 EPA per carry against Kansas City’s exploitable run defense in Week 9. For bettors who prefer more traditional metrics, how does 7.1 YPC sound? The main reason the Dolphins went pass-heavy was because they faced a three-score deficit at halftime, thanks to the Chiefs’ fluky defensive touchdown.

Generally speaking, the defending champs haven’t struggled to deliver an offensive performance that forces the opponent into a negative game script. If Miami’s offense can consistently operate at a neutral pace, ML underdog bettors could wind up cashing their tickets.

The best Dolphins’ odds to win the game outright are currently .

Dolphins logo Dolphins MIA
Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 6th 1st
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 18th 11th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 364.5 413.6
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 337.8 328.2
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 265.4 297.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.2 1.4

green bay packers at Dallas Cowboys

Since Week 9, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has manufactured the top EPA per dropback + completion percentage over expected (CPOE) composite ranking. In other words, he’s been elite. However, Jordan Love, Prescott’s counterpart, is right behind him during that juncture.

Prescott has a favorable matchup against Green Bay’s zone defense. But Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry could throw a wrinkle at Prescott, utilizing the same man coverage and five-man rush that tormented Bears signal-caller Justin Fields in Week 18. Conversely, Dallas has let up the league’s highest rushing success rate. With a healthy Aaron Jones leading the way, Love will likely benefit from a bevy of advantageous play-action opportunities.

Unless positive turnover variance continues to swing in the Cowboys’ direction, the road underdog should have its shot at an upset. The best Packers’ odds in that regard are .

Packers logo Packers GB
Cowboys logo Cowboys DAL
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 17th 11th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 17th 12th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 337.9 354.9
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 336.5 330.2
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 213.6 219.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.3 1.4

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