Week 4 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

Written By Eli Hershkovich on September 28, 2023

As always, underdogs are garnering interest in NFL Week 4 odds. But determining the most valuable ones at NFL betting sites is a difficult process. If you normally dabble in parlays, along with same-game parlays, here are three plus-money teams to consider. Keep in mind that this hypothetical three-team parlay doesn’t represent a personal wager on my betting card.

Be on the lookout for my best bets column by following TheLines on Twitter. In order to place a bet at the best sports betting sites, click on any of the odds below. These prices are the best available in your state.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland browns

Ironically, one of the biggest NFL Week 3 upsets came from Ravens odds. John Harbaugh’s bunch was gifted a home overtime loss by heralded backup quarterback Gardner Minshew and the Colts. Baltimore didn’t benefit from the whistle (or lack thereof), though, as seen in the missed defensive pass interference call below.

As for this Sunday’s matchup, the point spread drifted from Ravens -1.5 on the look-ahead line to . Bettors who are contemplating a wager on Browns odds have every reason to. Not only does Cleveland possess arguably the league’s best defense, but Deshaun Watson also rebounded in a big way, notching the second-most EPA per play among qualified QBs. That said, I have Baltimore power-rated slightly ahead of the Browns in my power ratings when these teams are healthy. Keep an eye out for the Ravens’ awfully long injury report. It may warrant a wager on Lamar Jackson & Co. if things break right.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

Per the graphic below, those who cashed in on Steelers odds against the Raiders continued their good fortune. Pittsburgh manufactured a negative success rate (SR) in non-garbage time for a second consecutive week, in which both games resulted in an outright victory. For context, this advanced metric measures efficiency. A play is deemed successful if it collects at least 50% of the yards necessary for a first down, 70% of the yards to gain on a second down, and 100% of the yards to gain on a third or fourth down.

Mike Tomlin’s group is a bit overvalued in the market as a result. Hence, Texans odds are deserving of a look at . Houston’s offense quietly showcases a league-average EPA per dropback. Believe it or not, that’s progress. C.J. Stroud’s development hasn’t gone unnoticed by bettors, perched right behind Bijan Robinson for the second-shortest Offensive Rookie of the Year odds at .

However, the Texans’ offensive line will be down to backups at every position if left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) and left guard Josh Jones (hand) aren’t in uniform. Couple that with the Steelers’ third-ranked pressure rate, and Stroud is unlikely to have a clean pocket often.

Related: Super Bowl odds for the 2023 NFL season

las vegas raiders at Los Angeles chargers

If the Steelers received some luck in their win over the Raiders, Las Vegas is at the other end of the spectrum. Granted, it’s difficult to go to war with an incompetent head coach (re: Josh McDaniels). Nevertheless, bettors who are willing to should recognize that the Chargers’ secondary has allowed the NFL’s fifth-highest passing success rate. Jimmy Garoppolo could have a fine bounce-back showing if Las Vegas doesn’t face another negative game script because of a few too many turnovers. But who’s counting?

Of course, Garoppolo’s status in concussion protocol makes this potential bet even murkier. If he doesn’t suit up, the Raiders will turn to 15-year veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell.

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