Week 12 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs will be an enticing option among NFL Week 12 odds, especially for Thanksgiving football odds. Then again, determining the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites is tricky. That’s where TheLines comes in handy. Here are three plus-money teams to monitor if you typically use some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This three-team parlay isn’t a wager of mine. You can find those NFL best bets later in the week.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The prices below are the best available in your state.

green bay packers at Detroit lions

Why is this spread almost identical to where the Lions’ odds closed against the Bears last week? Granted, Detroit had just racked up an emotional win over the Chargers, meaning that Jared Goff & Co. may have been a bit flat. Green Bay is banged up on both sides of the ball, to boot, including running back Aaron Jones (knee). However, that doesn’t detract from the notion that this spread is inflated.

Dan Campbell’s defense ranks No. 23 in dropback success rate allowed. For context, a play is deemed successful if it generates at least 50% of the necessary yards on first down, 70% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down. As poorly as Packers quarterback Jordan Love has performed this season, he boasts the sixth-most adjusted EPA per play over the last two weeks. Hence, he’s positioned to take advantage and hang within one score.

If you’re interested in betting Packers’ odds on the moneyline, the most valuable number is .

STATS
Packers logo Packers GB
Lions logo Lions DET
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 11th 3rd
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 18th 19th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 345.5 394.8
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 335.1 336.1
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 233.4 258.9
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.1 1.4

buffalo bills at Philadelphia Eagles

Bettors who backed the Eagles’ odds in their last two games can’t complain about their heavier wallets. That said, Philadelphia’s turnover luck, recovering five total fumbles (three of its own) during that stretch, illustrates they’ve received some positive variance along the way.

Enter the Bills, in a must-win situation as they fight for their playoff lives. Like Jordan Love against Detroit, Buffalo QB Josh Allen should exploit an Eagles secondary that benefited from two critical drops by Chiefs receivers on Monday night. The best moneyline odds for the road underdog are — if you’re looking to sell high on the Super Bowl betting favorite ().

STATS
Bills logo Bills BUF
Eagles logo Eagles PHI
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 4th 8th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 9th 26th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 374.5 354.4
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 307.2 356.1
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 244.4 225.5
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.6 1.6

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles chargers

After last week’s loss in Green Bay, the Chargers are another team needing a victory to remain in the AFC postseason hunt. Although the Ravens represent one of the league’s best teams, their secondary could be without All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey (calf) for a second straight week. Los Angeles’ pass defense is worse overall, allowing a top-10 EPA per dropback, but Justin Herbert can certainly go toe-to-toe with Lamar Jackson to pull off the upset.

Everything is seemingly on the line for Chargers coach Brandon Staley. If you’re willing to back L.A.’s moneyline odds in a desperate spot, its best price is .

STATS
Ravens logo Ravens BAL
Chargers logo Chargers LAC
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 6th 18th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 6th 28th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 370.4 329.4
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 301.4 362.9
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 213.8 232.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.1 1.2

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