5 Things You Need To Know Before Betting NFL Week 1 Odds
With NFL Week 1 odds already available, the interest in sports betting nationwide continues to surge. According to the American Gaming Association’s Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker, Americans bet a record-setting $119.84 billion on sports betting in 2023, rising 27.5% from 2022. Those wagers manufactured $10.92 billion of revenue in 2023, increasing 44.5% from the previous year. As new sportsbook users bet on the NFL, here are five important tips to remember. These are the best practices I’ve incorporated, especially during the early stages.
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5 Things to remember before betting on NFL
1. Understand Basic Terminology
Plenty of advanced sports betting phrases exist, but grasping these is critical before engaging in NFL betting.
- Point Spread: A spread first displays the oddsmakers’ evaluation of the numerical separation between two teams, followed by the betting market’s opinion. Take Super Bowl LVI. The Rams opened at four-point favorites before closing at -3.5. Los Angeles spread bettors were wagering on Matthew Stafford and Co. to win by four or more points. Since Cincinnati fell by a field goal, the Bengals covered the spread despite losing outright.
- Moneyline: This market simplifies the point spread. If you bet $100 on Chiefs ML (+110) in Super Bowl 58, you would’ve nabbed a $110 profit into your account — or a net payout of $210 (including your original stake).
- Total (Over/Under): Let’s rewind to Feb. 7, 2021. The Buccaneers and Chiefs total, which amounts to the projected number of points scored in a given game, was 54.5. The high-powered offenses combined for just 40 points during Tampa Bay’s blowout win in Super Bowl 55. If you bet $100 on Under 54.5 (-110), your profit would be $90.91 — for a total payout of $190.91.
- Teaser: You could technically tease many NFL odds, but we’ll highlight the Wong Teaser — named after author Stanford Wong. This betting strategy is geared toward generating wagers with positive expectations (+EV) for NFL point spreads. For this exercise, you’ll want -6 to -8.5 favorites and +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs to tease them through NFL key numbers.
- Player Props: Like a game total, this market allows sportsbook customers to bet on a certain player to go over or under a certain number of attempts, yards, touchdowns, etc. Check in with our prop finder amid the season. It centers around a strategy that you’ll see later on.
2. Utilize Bankroll Management
This notion may not be necessary if you are betting on the NFL for entertainment. However, that isn’t the case if you’re looking to build upon your winnings over time, which is the essence of bankroll management.
Let’s introduce another term: flat betting. This game plan is designed to help dictate how much you wager weekly. It also revolves around betting a fixed amount per wager, no matter your confidence level, for an allotted time (from one month and a year) before methodically increasing your bankroll if success has followed suit. When I started betting, this strategy paved the way for a more informal approach in certain situations.
When beginning your journey, limit yourself to 1% to 5% of your bankroll per wager. For example, if you deposit $1,000 into your Caesars Sportsbook account, you will use $10 to $50 for each wager. As a result, you’ll hopefully avoid placing a high-stakes wager if you go on a hot streak or fall into a rut.
Line shopping also plays a critical role in bankroll management. TheLines.com is here to help, as our NFL odds comparison tool allows bettors to bet the best number available. This concept is up to increase your expected value (EV). That way, you’ll have numerous outlets while receiving the top NFL Week 1 promo codes.
Whether you’re wagering on NFL betting odds on Monday afternoon or Sunday morning, this step is imperative.
Conversely, a quick route towards decimating your bankroll is consistently wagering large amounts on same-game parlays. In particular, odds boosts, which include SGPs, are an easy way for operators to target bettors who aren’t juxtaposing the implied probability between multiple outlets. Don’t let sportsbooks sway you in this direction because one bettor “won” $100,000 with a $5 wager.
3. Avoid Chasing While Betting NFL
In June 2022, I spoke with a then-college student who dramatically increased his unit size during the NCAA tournament. This behavior juxtaposes the flat-betting blueprint and highlights the significance of losing control.
No matter how unfortunate a bad beat may seem in the moment — even if it arises in the game’s final seconds — extending the damage with a careless wager can represent detrimental betting conduct. Stick to your initial plan of action in most cases. Don’t blow away your bankroll, and possibly a portion of your bank account, because you doubled or even tripled down in live betting markets since the initial wager didn’t go according to script.
That isn’t to say live betting doesn’t provide profitable windows of opportunity. However, these instances are typically unforced. There is plenty of help available if you’re struggling to implement responsible gambling.
4. Monitor Buy-Low, Sell-High Opportunities
From Week 2 overreactions to injury-related movement in the market, an assortment of +EV wagers can be made throughout the season.
Last season’s Week 3 contest between the Browns and Titans is a prime example. Cleveland was favored by five points on the look-ahead line before settling in the -3.5 range. Surprisingly, the line was as low as -2.5 midweek. This market steam was a byproduct of Nick Chubb’s season-ending injury in Cleveland’s disappointing loss at Pittsburgh the week prior. Ultimately, Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ defense took care of a below-average Tennessee team.
This example serves as a buy-low spot on Cleveland and a sell-high opportunity with Tennessee following its overtime victory against the Chargers. Their subsequent power ratings were slightly exaggerated.
Related: Eli’s Favorite NFL Division Futures Bets
5. Review Your NFL Betting Approach
This action item comes at the tail end but should be highly prioritized. Bettors can use one of the many NFL betting trackers available or create a simple spreadsheet. Understanding if your bet(s) went south or failed because of negative variance is critical. With a level-headed mindset, you can adjust or remain content with the result(s).
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord channel, with nearly 4,000 members, talking NFL odds and more.
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