NFL Divisional Playoffs Trends: How Often Do Large ‘Dogs, Like Commanders, Cover ATS?

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL trends

Odds for the NFL divisional playoff round have already hit the board, and bettors can find a familiar sight. Detroit and Kansas City, the two teams with byes, have opened as hefty favorites north of a touchdown. Bettors may be interested in knowing how these teams do regarding NFL betting trends.

Have large divisional underdogs been underestimated by the market? Or have favorites coming off a bye generally cruised?

Well, a little of both.

NFL Odds FOr Divisional Games

Early divisional odds have the Commanders and Texans priced as big dogs. The Rams joined them after trouncing the Vikings on Monday night. NFL look-ahead lines had them set around +6.5 against the Eagles in Philly.

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Large Divisional Dogs Show a Profit In NFL Betting Trends

I’ve compiled the data from every divisional underdog of at least a touchdown in the illegal contact era (2004-2023, historical spreads via Pro Football Reference). The sample started with the 2004 Jets (lost 20-17 to the Steelers as +9 underdogs) and ended with the 2023 Packers (lost 24-21 to the 49ers as +10 underdogs). In each case, the favorite enjoyed a bye coming into the game.

Here’s how the underdogs did against the spread and straight up:

Total GamesUnderdogs ATSUnderdogs Straight Up (SU)Underdog Avg. ATS Margin
4024-1611-29+1.7

The big underdogs showed an automatic profit against the spread (+6.4u). Historical moneylines aren’t available, but they would only have needed to be +264 on average to show a profit. Since underdogs north of a touchdown are usually at least +300, it seems safe to say these dogs profited on average on the moneyline as well.

Interestingly, there seems to be a split in the data starting around 2013. Favorites SU have been highly successful since then, posting an 18-3 record. However, the underdogs still win ATS, 12-9 for +2.1 units.

Still, for whatever reason, upsets in these games have become much less common than they were from 2004-12. In that span, the favorites went just 11-8 straight up.

Total GamesUnderdogs ATSUnderdogs Straight UpUnderdog Avg. ATS Margin
1912-78-11+4.1

Perhaps it’s a sample-size fluke, or maybe the market adjusted after it overvalued these teams with byes.

When Favorites Cover, They Cover Big

One thing to note is that when the favorites with byes cover the spread, they frequently cover with much room to spare.

Their average margin against the spread was +9.7, with a median of +8.5. In other words, if they were -7, they averaged a 17-point win.

That indicates there may be value in alternate spreads for the blowout wins.

Many people will be looking at the Chiefs and Lions this weekend and seeing they land in the zone for teaser bets. This data, though, suggests bettors should consider going the other way. Instead of buying points, they might be wise to sell them if they expect a blowout.

Photo by AP/Chris O’Meara

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