With exactly two weeks to go until NFL Week 1 odds kick off, we’ve seen bettors already dent the Bills at Rams‘ spread after Los Angeles opened as a one-point favorite. But considering that was a result of the Matthew Stafford elbow injury, the most recent NFL betting market movement is more significant.
Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.
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NFL Betting Market Adjusts Titans Vs. Giants Odds
When the market began taking wagers in May, the Titans were a 6.5-point home favorite. However, as of Thursday afternoon, BetMGM is the lone sportsbook that’s still posting a Giants +6 (-110) — with the majority already dipping the line down to +5.5 (-110).
Moreover, BetMGM states that 71% of the spread handle and 58% of the tickets are on Big Blue.
As I previously noted, this one-point swing isn’t a result of an injury or anything of that nature. Considering where the money for this matchup is trending, the NFL betting market is lower on Tennessee than its regular season win total (Over/Under ) while New York is expected to take step up after adding an actual head coach in Brian Daboll.
In regards to the total, the over has been bet up to from an opener of 43.
Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds
Matchups To Mull Over
New York’s secondary represents its biggest defensive liability. Beyond cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, no one remaining earned a notable coverage grade via PFF in 2021. James Bradberry left and signed with the Eagles in mid-May.
Nevertheless, Tennessee no longer owns an elite wide receiver. A.J. Brown shipped off to Philadelphia on draft night. Plus, veteran Julio Jones remained somewhat of a viable threat despite his lengthy injury history. He also signed elsewhere. The current depth chart consists of Robert Woods, who’s coming off a torn ACL, rookie Treylon Burkes and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
On top of that, the Titans also underwent changes on their offensive line, losing a pair of dynamic run blockers in David Quessenberry and Rodger Saffold, who both signed with Buffalo. Couple that with the Giants’ sound front-seven and revamped pressure looks via well-known defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale and New York should possess a slight edge on that side of the ball.
I’ve never been a Ryan Tannehill stan, and I’m not planning on hopping aboard that train anytime soon.
You’re buying low on the Giants’ offense. Although their playmakers, with Saquon Barkley leading the way, have dealt with their fair share of wounds over the years, injury luck could possibly turn in their favor this time around.
Daboll’s unit will showcase plenty of 11 personnel packages as well, making turnover-prone Daniel Jones more comfortable after his days under the inept Jason Garrett.
While Tennessee’s defense yielded the 10th-fewest Expected Points Added (EPA) per play last season, it’s worth noting the departures of linebackers Rashaan Evans and Jaylon Brown, along with cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
EPA is calculated by the expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — compared to the end result.
NFL Betting Conclusion
Overall, trusting the Titans’ passing attack and their ability to control the line of scrimmage — in what should be a lower scoring game — is a difficult ask in this one. Assuming you have access to BetMGM Sportsbook and planned to bet New York eventually, grab a Giants +6 (-110) before it’s officially toast.