5 Things You Need To Know Before Betting NFL This Season
Unsurprisingly, NFL betting interest continues to spike while sports wagering legalization normalizes across the U.S. Super Bowl LVII saw all-time highs in legal online U.S. sports betting, according to GeoComply. Over 100 million sports betting app pings were tracked over the weekend by the geolocation software — embedded within betting sites. That was roughly a 20% increase from Super Bowl weekend the previous year. With so many new users betting on the NFL, here are five important tips to learn. They are the best practices I’ve utilized on my own time, especially at an early juncture.
Keep in mind, Week 1 odds are right around the corner. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager at the best sports betting sites, including Super Bowl 58 odds. These prices are the best available in your state.
5 Things to remember before betting on the nfl this season
1. Understand Basic Terminology
There are plenty of advanced sports betting phrases, but grasping these is critical before engaging in NFL betting.
- Point Spread: A spread displays first the oddsmaker’s and then the betting market’s best evaluations of the numerical separation between two teams. Take Super Bowl LVI, for instance. The Rams were 3.5-point favorites against the Bengals, meaning Los Angeles point-spread backers needed Matthew Stafford & Co. to win by four or more points. Since Cincinnati lost by a field goal, the Bengals covered the spread despite losing outright.
- Moneyline: This market simplifies the spread. Let’s say you bet $100 on Chiefs ML (+110) to knock off the Eagles straight up in the latest Big Game. Considering Kansas City won, 38-35, the sportsbook would deliver a $110 profit into your account — or a net payout of $210 (includes your original stake).
- Total (Over/Under): Let’s rewind to Feb. 7, 2021. The Buccaneers and Chiefs total, which amounts to the projected number of points scored in a given game, was set at Over/Under 54.5. Despite the pair of high-powered offenses, they combined for just 40 points during Tampa Bay’s blowout victory in Super Bowl 55. If you bet $100 on Under 54.5 (-110), your profit would be $90.91 — for a total payout of $190.91.
- Teaser: You could technically tease a variety of markets, but let’s focus on one in particular — a Wong Teaser — coined by gambling author Stanford Wong. It’s directed to manufacture bets with positive expectations (+EV) for NFL spreads specifically. Typically, you’ll want -6 to -8.5 favorites and +1.5 to +2.5 underdogs in order to tease them through NFL key numbers.
- Player Prop: Similar to a game total, this betting market allows bettors to wager on whether a player will go over or under a certain number of attempts, yards, touchdowns, etc. Check in with our prop finder amid the season. It centers around a strategy that you’ll see later on.
2. Utilize Bankroll Management
If you are betting on the NFL for entertainment purposes only, this notion may not be necessary. However, that isn’t the case if you’re looking to build upon your winnings over time, which is the essence of bankroll management.
Let’s introduce another term: flat betting. This game plan is designed to help dictate the amount of money you wager week over week. It also revolves around betting a fixed amount per wager — no matter the confidence level — for an allotted amount of time (between one month and a year) before methodically increasing your bankroll if success has followed suit. When I first started betting, this route paved the way to allow for a more informal approach on certain occasions.
When starting out, bettors should initially limit themselves to 1% to 5% of your bankroll per wager. If you begin by depositing $1,000 into your Caesars Sportsbook account, you’d use $10 to $50 for each wager. As a result, you’ll hopefully avoid placing a high-stake wager, if you go on a hot streak or fall into a rut.
Line shopping plays a critical role in bankroll management. TheLines is here to help, as our NFL odds comparison tool provides bettors with an opportunity to bet the best number available. This concept yourself up to increase your expected value (EV). That way, you’ll have numerous sportsbooks at your arsenal while receiving the best sportsbook promos in the process).
Whether you’re wagering on NFL betting odds Monday afternoon or Sunday morning, this step is imperative.
On the flip side, a quick route towards decimating your bankroll is by engaging in the same-game parlay. In particular, odds boosts, which include SGPs, an easy way for operators to target bettors who aren’t juxtaposing the implied probability between multiple outlets. Don’t let sportsbooks sway you in this direction just because one bettor “won” $100,000 with a $5 wager.
3. Avoid Chasing While Betting NFL
In June 2022, I spoke with a gambler who dramatically escalated his unit size amid the NCAA tournament. Not only does this behavior juxtapose the flat-betting blueprint, but it highlights the significance of losing control as well.
No matter how unfortunate a bad beat may seem in the moment — even if it arises in the game’s final seconds — extending the damage with a careless wager can represent detrimental betting conduct. Stick to your initial plan of action in most cases. Don’t blow away your bankroll, and potentially some of your bank account, because you couldn’t stop yourself from doubling or even tripling down in live betting markets since the initial bet didn’t go according to script.
Granted, that isn’t to say that live betting doesn’t provide profitable windows of opportunity. Nevertheless, these instances are typically unforced. There’s plenty of help available if you’re struggling with problem gambling.
4. Monitor Buy-Low, Sell-High Opportunities
From Week 2 overreactions to injury-related movement in the market, there is an assortment of +EV wagers to be made over the course of the season.
Last season, Cincinnati’s trip to Dallas immediately comes to mind. The Bengals were 1.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line, but the spread closed as high as -7.5 (-115). This steam was a product of Dak Prescott’s thumb injury, which he suffered the previous week. In the end, Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush delivered as close to a borderline wire-to-wire victory.
This instance served as a buy-low spot on Dallas and a sell-high position on its opponent. For one, the market overreacted to the Cowboys’ unproven signal caller and a double-digit loss to the Bucs in their season-opener. Conversely, the Bengals were the defending AFC champs at the time. Their subsequent power rating was slightly exaggerated because of their lack of cohesion along the offensive line.
Numbers-oriented professional bettors tend to scoff at situational handicapping — to any degree. It speaks to the pretentious attitude of #GamblingX (formerly known as #GamblingTwitter). That said, whether you’re mathematically incorporating these spots in an NFL betting model or just being aware of them before placing a bet, they’ll add a dose of perspective.
5. Review Your NFL Betting Approach
This action item comes at the tail end of this piece, yet it’s of high priority. Bettors can use one of the many NFL betting trackers available or create their own spreadsheet. Recognizing why your bet(s) went south or simply failed because of negative variance, is vital. With a level-headed mindset, you’ll be positioned to adjust or remain content with the result(s).
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