The Deshaun Watson suspension uncertainty has created an intriguing NFL betting opportunity. And it is yet another example of why shopping for the best odds is critical to maximizing your potential profits as a sports bettor. If you only use one sports betting app, you are missing out.
You can find this bet on the FanDuel Sportsbook app by:
- clicking the NFL logo at the top
- scrolling right to ‘Player Props’
- then choose ‘Rushing Props’
- Scroll down under ‘Regular Season Rushing TDs’ to Nick Chubb.
FanDuel Sportsbook currently has Nick Chubb’s rushing touchdown prop set at Over 8.5 (-122). You should consider going and betting it now. The market consensus on this prop is 10.5, with DraftKings Sportsbook set at Under 10.5 (-125) and BetMGM at Under 10.5 (-120). PointsBet has it at 9.5 rushing touchdowns.
Option To Middle This Market
If you opted to bet Chubb over 8.5 rushing touchdowns at this off-market price at FD, you now have the option at a pretty rare middle on a season-long prop. It’s very rare to see a two-touchdown gap on the same player between sportsbooks.
Off-Market: odds, like a spread or total, that are very different at one sportsbook compared to the consensus odds across the sport betting marketplace.
Here’s one example at attempting to middle this to try and cash both bets, and you can adjust your unit size however you’d like. As always, bet responsibly, and don’t bet more than you are comfortable tying up for the entire NFL regular season.
- $305 on Chubb Over 8.5 TD (-122) at FD: to profit $250
- $300 on Chubb Under 10.5 TD (-120) at BetMGM: to profit $250
One of these two bets is guaranteed to win, and perhaps both if Chubb finishes with nine or 10 rushing touchdowns. If only one side hits, you’d only lose $50 or $55 in this example; however, the total profit is $500 if it middles.
So the choice is up to each better and should be made based on their personal bankroll. Bet the NFL betting market inefficiency on Chubb over 8.5 TDs, or try for the large payout if it middles.
Other Factors To Consider For This Prop
Browns Early-Season Schedule
If Deshaun Watson is only suspended six games (which is not what the NFL is looking for on appeal), the early-season schedule is generous to Chubb and the Browns:
- Week 1 vs Panthers: 113.8 rushing YPG allowed (15th worst)
- Week 2 vs Jets: The Jets allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL in 2021 (28).
- Week 3 vs Steelers: The Steelers who allowed 146.1 rushing YPG last season (worst in the NFL).
- Week 4 vs Atlanta: The Falcons allowed 131.9 rushing YPG last year (6th worst in the NFL).
- Week 5 vs Chargers: The Chargers surrendered the 3rd most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last year (22) and allowed 138.9 YPG (3rd worst in the NFL).
- Week 6 vs Patriots: The Patriots allowed a league low, nine rushing touchdowns last season.
Consider Nick Chubb Injury History
Although he is one of the best running backs in the league, Nick Chubb has not played a full season since 2019. In week four of the 2020 season, Chubb suffered an MCL injury against the Cowboys that forced him to miss four games. In week five against the Chargers last year, Chubb suffered a calf injury that forced him to miss two games. He missed a third game in 2021 due to a positive covid test.
Running backs are some of the most often injured players in the NFL due to their workload being more than most other players on the field. Because of injuries, it makes it difficult to bet on running back props. However, the difference in Nick Chubb’s rushing touchdown props on different sportsbooks has created an interesting opportunity for bettors where they can attempt to “middle” this prop if it records either nine or 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
Follow TheLines for more NFL betting coverage leading up to the 2022 regular season.