NFL Betting Odds: Appealing QBs In Most Interceptions Thrown Market

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Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 15, 2023
NFL Betting

History has proven that rookie quarterbacks are more susceptible to tallying their fair share of miscues. Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning ended his rookie campaign with 28 interceptions while the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence gift-wrapped 17 of them in his inaugural season. But a pair of veteran signal callers atop the NFL MVP odds board find themselves as the co-favorites to throw the most interceptions in 2023 NFL betting. So, how should bettors evaluate these markets? Let’s dive in.

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Appraising the candidates

Not only did Manning prove that even generational talents are liable to more turnovers as a rookie, but his near-30 interceptions also paced the NFL in 1998. Then, there’s Lawrence, who tied with Matthew Stafford for the league lead in 2021.

Last year, second-year Texans man Davis Mills shared the crown with the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (+1000).

Consider that two of the three rookie QBs who are almost assured to kick off the season under center are in the +2000 range. The concept of looking beyond the favorites in Prescott, Josh Allen, and even first-year starter Jordan Love (+1200) may have merit. Although the Colts’ Anthony Richardson (+3000) is set to join that list as of Tuesday, he’ll operate in a run-heavy offense dissimilar from those that “powered” Manning and Lawrence.

On that note, we’ll highlight Young and Stroud, both priced at +2000, among the NFL betting odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Which Top-3 Pick Is Worth NFL Betting Pursuit?

Stroud is the Texans’ likely starter for NFL Week 1 odds, but Young — the first overall pick in the draft — has already been named No. 1 on the depth chart in Carolina. That said, offensive line play is an important variable for this betting market. QB pressures factor in heavily with turnovers.

The Panthers unit ranked league average in 2022, according to PFF. In particular, right tackle Taylor Moton allowed only 21 pressures.

While Stroud has security on the edges from stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil and the steady Tytus Howard, Houston’s interior finished with the eighth-worst pass protection grade on PFF. Left guard Kenyon Green managed to rank dead last at his position. Moreover, Stroud’s non-divisional slate includes a mix of pressure-heavy and experienced defenses, taking on the Ravens, Steelers, Saints, Bengals, Broncos, Jets and Browns.

Young even has more skill-position flair — with ol’ reliable Adam Thielen leading the way. Preparing under the guidance of Frank Reich, who demonstrated his QB coaching prowess during the Eagles’ 2017 Super Bowl run, should pay dividends as well.

On the flip side, the Texans’ coaching staff begins with former defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans before reaching offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Both are rookies are their respective positions.

Despite Slowik learning under the esteemed Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, his play-calling feel is completely unknown at this level. Keep in mind, Slowik never served as an offensive coordinator in the collegiate ranks. Ergo, Stroud lacks the situational expertise behind him that Young seemingly possesses.

What Do The Projections Say?

ESPN analyst Mike Clay has Stroud forecast to accumulate roughly 14 interceptions. That tally would have finished one off of the lead a season ago. Even if you’re bullish about Houston’s worst-to-first candidacy among AFC South odds, Stroud’s long leash supplements the potential for a higher number of turnovers. His +2000 price tag (4.76% implied probability) is one to mull over, at the least.

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