NFL MVP & OPOY Odds: Tua Tagovailoa & Tyreek Hill Headline Biggest Movers
In only one week, we’ve seen some significant changes in NFL MVP odds as well as Offensive Player of the Year. Two Dolphins players, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, were the biggest movers we saw in NFL betting odds, heading into Week 2. With this in mind, let’s dive into current odds and some of the biggest movers at the best sports betting sites.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS
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Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds ()
The lefty quarterback headlines our first big mover in NFL MVP odds, after notching three touchdowns on 28-of-45 passing attempts, and an incredible 466 yards. Before this miraculous performance, Tua could’ve been had at +1800 to win NFL MVP.
The biggest question with Tua is his health. The 25-year-old out of Alabama has yet to surpass 13 games played in a season, but perhaps this is the year. His season-long pace for touchdowns currently has him on pace for 51 this year. It would mark the first time a player eclipsed 50 touchdowns in a season since Mahomes did it in his 2018 MVP season. We’re having some fun with a one-game extrapolation, but you get the point. He balled out Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers logged a 48-touchdown season in his 2020 MVP campaign. Leading the league in touchdowns is important, and although it’s one week, Tua is already on bettors’ radars, especially in Mike McDaniel‘s offense.
2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year ODDS
Tyreek Hill Offensive Player of the Year Odds ()
Hill put on a clinic against a weak Chargers defense on Sunday. The 5-foot-10 receiver zipped around the field, making it seem impossible for anyone to cover him. He accumulated 11 receptions for 215 yards and two scores. In fact, he led the week in receiving yards, outpacing Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson by 65 yards.
The speedster faces a tough defense in Week 2, though, as the Dolphins travel to Foxborough. His spectacular performance in Week 1 isn’t likely to be duplicated in consecutive weeks; Hill did log eight receptions for 94 yards in their meeting last season with a healthy Tua.
Belichick has a reputation for taking away an opponent’s strength, though, and the Patriots will undoubtedly try to stifle the speedy Hill this week.
The movement on Hill’s OPOY odds were justified after his mammoth performance, but perhaps now is the time to get involved elsewhere. The Dolphins square off against New England, Denver, and Buffalo over the next three weeks, defenses that each finished inside the top 11 in dropback EPA a year ago.
Furthermore, Hill will have two matchups against Sauce Gardner in the second half of the season. If Hill is going to win this award, McDaniel will have to scheme him open against some difficult opponents.
Nevertheless, considering Hill is +450 at BetMGM to lead the league in receiving and +800 to win Offensive Player of the Year, OPOY is probably the better bet, considering running backs have only won this award twice in the past eight years.
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Other Notable NFL Betting Odds Movement
Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Week 1 saw some odds shrink and some increase. One of those increasing was Joe Burrow‘s MVP odds. Burrow and company faced a stiff test in Cleveland in the opening week, creating a possible buy point for those interested in the MVP action. The weather did play a factor in that game, after all. The best odds for Burrow to win MVP currently sit at after starting the season at +700.
Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley
On the flip side, the attention Hill drew on Sunday has made another player go slightly unnoticed in Offensive Player of the Year odds, that being Calvin Ridley. Ridley could’ve found at +12000 to win the award over the summer at FanDuel. Now, the best available price on Ridley currently sits at . Pointsbet shortened his odds down to +3500. The former first-round pick logged eight receptions for 101 yards and one score in their victory over the Colts.
His massive target share of over 30% on Sunday adds to the notion that Ridley could win. If this target-share trend continues, Ridley’s odds of winning OPOY will shrink if he continues to stuff the stat lines. I bought into Ridley over the summer when FanDuel hung that large number, but I still think this is playable at +6600.
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