NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting: Two Teams On Upset Alert This Weekend

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs always make for enticing bets among NFL playoff odds or any other market. Deciding on the “best” ones across NFL betting sites is a difficult proposition, especially for just four games. Below are a couple of options to consider if you normally throw pizza money on moneyline or same game parlays. This two-team parlay isn’t on my betting card. You can read my divisional betting column for those picks.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The odds listed below are the best available in your state.

Tampa bay buccaneers at Detroit lions

Regarding the Buccaneers’ odds, their ML odds were as low as +215 before rising to . That is because pro money initially came in on the Lions’ odds — and in a hurry.

As I dissected in my divisional round breakdown, seventh-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is finally playing in a familiar system, thanks to his brief stint with the Rams last season. He’s responded with the second-highest EPA per dropback against zone coverage, which Detroit’s vulnerable defense utilizes quite a bit. Even if Mayfield’s counterpart Jared Goff avoids mistakes against Tampa Bay’s pressure-driven unit, this one is primed to go down to the wire. That makes the Bucs an attractive NFL betting option.

STATS
Buccaneers logo Buccaneers TB
Lions logo Lions DET
Offense Ranking OFF RNK N/A N/A
Defense Ranking DEF RNK N/A N/A
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have split their last six meetings, yet the two-time Super Bowl MVP has bested the Bills in both playoff matchups. But like the Lions, sharp action has backed Buffalo throughout the week. That isn’t abnormal, as Allen & Co. were considered a buy-low candidate before they ripped off five straight wins to end the regular season.

However, Buffalo has a myriad of injuries, including wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee). If the Chiefs find a way to stymie the Bills’ ground attack, which has evolved under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, they present enough mismatches on the other side of the ball to pull off an NFL betting upset.

Overall, Buffalo’s defense relies slightly more on zone coverage. It’s even more so the case because of the depleted secondary. Similar to Mayfield, Mahomes boasts a top-seven efficiency grade against it. Given their shortage of healthy corners, Mahomes’ unreliable receiving core may not represent as glaring of an issue for a second consecutive game.

As of now, the best Chiefs odds to win outright are .

STATS
Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Bills logo Bills BUF
Offense Ranking OFF RNK N/A N/A
Defense Ranking DEF RNK N/A N/A
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG

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