NFL Betting Data: AFC Odds Movement Includes Heavy Interest in Rodgers, Jets
After a chaotic finish to last season’s AFC East race, the Buffalo Bills are slight favorites to repeat as champions. However, the New York Jets have gained ground in the betting market. They are priced right behind the Bills at most shops, including Fanatics Sportsbook. Let’s assess this division’s most intriguing NFL betting markets.
Click any odds from one of the best sports betting sites below to place a wager. Fanatics Sportsbook is available in 20 states, including New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
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AFC East
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Buffalo bills
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New York Jets
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Miami DOlphins
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New ENgland patriots
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Will Rodgers Return To Form?
Bettors certainly believe so. After opening at +300 to win the AFC East, New York’s price has shortened to +185. The Jets are the second-most lopsided bet to win their respective division at Fanatics, trailing only the Eagles among NFC East odds.
As for more of a long-term outlook, they’re tied for the sixth-best odds to win the AFC at +1200, generating the second-most tickets (19.1%) and betting handle (14.0%) for this market.
Assuming two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers can stay upright on his own, New York completely revamped its offensive line via first-round pick Olu Fashanu from Penn St, plus veterans Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, and John Simpson.
After facing the reigning NFC champion 49ers in the season opener, Rodgers & Co. will potentially be favored in their next 10 games. That coincides with possessing the easiest schedule among AFC East teams. For context, the Jets’ opponents are projected to win 120 games combined this season. The Bills (139.5), Dolphins (142.5), and Patriots (154.5) all face more daunting competition.
Last year’s broken roster still managed to tally seven wins despite compiling the league’s lowest EPA per dropback. Assuming the 40-year-old Rodgers is more proficient than Zach Wilson, Trevor Simien, and Tim Boyle, New York can challenge the Bills and Dolphins for the AFC East crown.
Buffalo’s Conundrum
Duel-threat quarterback Josh Allen delivered the highest offensive grade at his position, according to PFF (92.1), in 2023. He also finished third in EPA per play (0.193). While Allen & Co. showcase the third-best odds to win the AFC, the Bills have collected this market’s seventh-most tickets (4.5%) and eighth-most handle (1.4%). For reference, they opened in the +575 range.
Allen’s talent level isn’t at all worrisome, but his weaponry has lessened on paper. Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (241 combined targets) from its wide receiver group.
Khalil Shakir, who nabbed 39 receptions for 611 yards and two scores in 2023-24, represents the most “productive” returnee. There’s plenty of hype surrounding second-rounder Rookie Keon Coleman, who is tied with the Bears’ Rome Odunze for the ninth-best Offensive Rookie of the Year odds (+2500). Veterans Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins rounded out the core in free agency.
Like the Jets, the Dolphins are more talented at wide receiver. For one, Tyreek Hill showcases the highest season-long receiving yards prop at 1,325.5 yards. He’s also corralled the second-most money to exceed this total on a season-long receiving yards prop.
Safety is another notable concern, with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer departing. Mike Edwards, who allowed 23 catches on 38 targets last season, and Taylor Rapp are the projected starters. Moreover, none of their safeties posted a PFF grade better than 65.3 last season.
It’s unlikely Allen can carry them beyond a wild-card berth if their pass defense takes a step back.
Fanatics Sportsbook ‘Freebies’
Many new free-to-play games are now available on the Fanatics Sportsbook app. To participate in the action, customers must download the app (on iOS and Android) and sign up to make their selections for the night’s sporting events. There are daily and weekly games to play for a chance to win up to $1 million.
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