Week 9 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 31, 2023
NFL Betting

Underdogs are an attractive option regarding NFL Week 9 odds. Deciphering which ones are most valuable at NFL betting sites isn’t easy. Let’s examine three plus-money teams to consider if you typically put some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager of mine. You can read those NFL best bets later in the week by following TheLines.

Click on any of the following odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The prices below are the best available in your state.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans

Those who bet on the Buccaneers’ odds on Thursday Night Football benefited from a generous backdoor cover. They’re gifted a more favorable matchup this time, facing, at best, a league-average unit on both sides of the ball. They’re also coming off a min-bye, providing nose tackle Vita Vea (groin) a higher likelihood of suiting up after missing their loss in Buffalo.

If Baker Mayfield’s knee injury doesn’t markedly hamper his mobility, he’ll face significantly less pressure against the Texans’ defensive front. They’re even tied for the league’s third-lowest blitz rate. The Lions and Bills, his previous two opponents, don’t have much trouble putting heat on the opposing quarterback, which is when Mayfield struggles most. Led by four-time Pro Bowler Mike Evans, Tampa Bay’s receivers have an edge against Houston’s vulnerable secondary to boot.

The best moneyline odds on the road underdog are currently . Monitor the injury report concerning Vea and Mayfield.

Buccaneers logo Buccaneers TB
Texans logo Texans HOU
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 23rd 6th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 27th 19th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 305.6 373.1
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 356.9 342.2
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 220.4 275.2
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.1 0.9

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

In one of the most anticipated games of the season, the Eagles’ odds may be more appealing on the surface. However, they’ve faced the seventh-easiest schedule so far — per my ratings. Against the banged-up Dolphins, Philly received the benefit of the whistle. Hence, Dallas represents its most arduous test.

In Week 8, Commanders QB Sam Howell posted the ninth-highest dropback success rate. For context, a play is considered successful if it tallies at least 50% of the necessary yards to move the chains on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down. The Eagles’ secondary isn’t the elite unit from last season. Behind a reliable offensive line, Dak Prescott should manufacture a similar amount of damage through the air.

The most valuable Cowboys odds are . They’re also to win the NFC East, only 1.5 games behind Philly in the standings.

Cowboys logo Cowboys DAL
Eagles logo Eagles PHI
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 5th 9th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 3rd 22nd
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 380.4 361.7
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 287.1 350.6
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 263.4 235.7
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 0.8 1.3

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets

Although the Jets’ odds are 4-2-1 against the spread, they were fortunate to reach overtime versus the bottom-barrel Giants, which threw their third-string QB into the fire midway through. Their 4-3 straight-up record, with a minus-three-point differential, speaks for itself. That said, their front seven should build upon their league-leading hurries (35) and their third-ranked pressure rate (27.3%), squaring off against the Chargers’ susceptible offensive line. If Zach Wilson delivers even an average performance, which isn’t guaranteed, New York could continue its surge.

Remember that the look-ahead line favored the Chargers’ odds by only 1.5 points. If you believe New York will tally the outright upset, the most valuable price is .

Chargers logo Chargers LAC
Jets logo Jets NYJ
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 15th 31st
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 30th 9th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 338.6 260.1
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 379.5 312.7
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 240.9 169.3
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1 1.9

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