Week 17 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs always make for enticing bets — among NFL Week 17 odds or otherwise. Yet, determining the best ones across NFL betting sites is arduous. That’s where TheLines can help. Here are three plus-money teams to examine if you typically throw some pizza money on moneyline or same-game parlays. This three-team parlay isn’t on my betting card. You can find my NFL Week 17 best bets in my column.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The odds listed below are the best available in your state.

new orleans saints at tampa bay buccaneers

Per my betting model, this NFC South matchup represents one of the premier buy-low, sell-high opportunities of the 2023 campaign. Not only have the Buccaneers covered in three of their last four games, but they’ve also won all of them straight up. Their market rating and odds are inflated in the process. Enter Derek Carr & Co., whose passing attack can exploit Tampa Bay’s banged-up defense. Todd Bowles’ unit has been due for negative regression because of turnover luck — an unpredictable variable in its recent success.

The best Saints odds to win outright are currently .

Saints logo Saints NO
Buccaneers logo Buccaneers TB
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 18th 15th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 5th T9th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 333.8 346.7
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 314.8 324.3
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 217.2 269.8
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.5 1.3

las vegas raiders at Indianapolis colts

Shockingly, the Raiders find themselves themselves in the playoff hunt after defeating the Chiefs as double-digit underdogs. In fact, they didn’t even complete a pass after the first quarter. Believe it or not, a similar script could arise in Indianapolis if Max Crosby and their disruptive pass rush make another dent against the Colts’ vulnerable offensive line, which ranks No. 27 across the NFL in pass-block win rate (PBWR). For context, this metric illustrates the success in which the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.

Despite losing to the Falcons in Week 16, Colts quarterback Garner Minshew has received his fair share of positive variance. As Indy’s starter, five of his seven wins have come by one possession. Minshew’s fortune is bound to flip the other way eventually, even if wideout Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion) returns from a one-game absence.

The most appealing Raiders odds to win straight up are as of this publishing.

Raiders logo Raiders LV
Colts logo Colts IND
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 12th 27th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 28th 15th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 352.5 311.6
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 365.6 334
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 231.4 201.9
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.2 2

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

Speaking of lucky breaks, the Steelers didn’t need much from backup QB Mason Rudolph in their victory over Cincinnati, generating a trio of takeaways. One of them was an interception of Rudolph’s counterpart, Jake Browning, in the end zone. Pittsburgh also delivered a back-breaking goal-line stand in the first half.

However, they’re positioned with another opportunity to generate even more havoc, up against another vulnerable offensive line. Seattle owns the 24th-ranked PBWR, allowing six sacks in its last-minute win over Tenessee. Unfortunately for Geno Smith, the Steelers blitz at the league’s fourth-highest clip (35.7%). If Rudolph isn’t forced into a negative game script — an arduous task in a hostile environment — Mike Tomlin’s team may wind up leapfrogging their way back into an AFC wild-card spot.

As of now, the best Steelers odds on the board are .

Steelers logo Steelers PIT
Seahawks logo Seahawks SEA
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 22nd 13th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 13th 26th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 322.8 351.5
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 330.4 361.7
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 200.6 231.4
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.1 1.4

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