Week 11 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs are an attractive option for NFL Week 11 odds. Deciphering the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites isn’t easy. That’s where TheLines comes in handy. Here are three plus-money teams to monitor if you typically use some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager for me. You can find those NFL best bets later in the week.

Click on any odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The prices below are the best available in your state.

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans

After failing to cover in five of the previous six games, those who wagered on the Cardinals’ odds cashed in with Kyler Murray back under center against the Falcons. Next is a duel against the red-hot C.J. Stroud, who has quietly entered the conversation for NFL MVP odds at after generating the second-most EPA per dropback among qualified quarterbacks since Week 3. Nevertheless, Murray should also do plenty of damage against a Texans secondary surrendering the eighth-most EPA per dropback.

The best price for Arizona to win outright is currently .

STATS
Cardinals logo Cardinals ARI
Texans logo Texans HOU
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 20th 12th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 26th 14th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 324.1 342.4
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 355.7 330.7
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 184.9 245.5
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.1 0.8

los angeles chargers at green bay packers

On the surface, these odds may appear surprising. After all, the Chargers nearly upset the NFC North-leading Lions on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers’ odds have failed to come through at the ticket window in five of their last six matchups.

However, Green Bay is one of the league’s unluckiest teams, given its 3-6 outright record with a minus-three-point differential. Although QB Jordan Love has underperformed even mediocre preseason expectations, he tallied an above-average EPA per dropback in Week 10. Los Angeles’ defensive backs are more vulnerable, meaning he could have a repeat performance in store. Additionally, the Packers’ defense will likely see a significant piece or two return in the form of corner Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and linebacker Quay Walker (groin).

If you’re interested in backing the home underdog, its most valuable ML odds are .

STATS
Chargers logo Chargers LAC
Packers logo Packers GB
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 18th 11th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 28th 18th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 329.4 345.5
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 362.9 335.1
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 232.8 233.4
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.2 1.1

Minnesota Vikings at Denver broncos

This matchup recently showcased little intrigue, yet it reversed course with both teams on at least a three-game winning streak. Despite just a two-game sample size, QB Joshua Dobbs has provided the Vikings’ offense with arguably more upside than it had with Kirk Cousins (torn ACL).

Granted, the Broncos’ defense has seen a resurgence with All-Pro safety Justin Simmons back in the lineup. From Week 5 onward, they’ve yielded the 13th-fewest EPA per play. But Denver could also be considered overvalued in the betting market, especially given its plus-seven turnover differential in the last two games. Moreover, it’s also notched an average drive-starting field position from roughly the 35-yard line since Week 7, good for the best in the NFL. Hence, it has benefited from its fair share of positive variance that isn’t sustainable.

The most valuable Vikings odds to win straight up are currently .

STATS
Vikings logo Vikings MIN
Broncos logo Broncos DEN
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 10th 26th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 16th 29th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 347.8 298.4
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 333.2 370.8
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 256.4 191.9
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 2 1.3

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