Week 11 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools
Underdogs are an attractive option for NFL Week 11 odds. Deciphering the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites isn’t easy. That’s where TheLines comes in handy. Here are three plus-money teams to monitor if you typically use some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager for me. You can find those NFL best bets later in the week.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
After failing to cover in five of the previous six games, those who wagered on the Cardinals’ odds cashed in with Kyler Murray back under center against the Falcons. Next is a duel against the red-hot C.J. Stroud, who has quietly entered the conversation for NFL MVP odds at after generating the second-most EPA per dropback among qualified quarterbacks since Week 3. Nevertheless, Murray should also do plenty of damage against a Texans secondary surrendering the eighth-most EPA per dropback.
The best price for Arizona to win outright is currently .
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||25th||6th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||26th||19th|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||296.3||373.1|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||355.3||342.2|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||172.4||275.2|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1.2||0.9|
los angeles chargers at green bay packers
On the surface, these odds may appear surprising. After all, the Chargers nearly upset the NFC North-leading Lions on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers’ odds have failed to come through at the ticket window in five of their last six matchups.
However, Green Bay is one of the league’s unluckiest teams, given its 3-6 outright record with a minus-three-point differential. Although QB Jordan Love has underperformed even mediocre preseason expectations, he tallied an above-average EPA per dropback in Week 10. Los Angeles’ defensive backs are more vulnerable, meaning he could have a repeat performance in store. Additionally, the Packers’ defense will likely see a significant piece or two return in the form of corner Jaire Alexander (shoulder) and linebacker Quay Walker (groin).
If you’re interested in backing the home underdog, its most valuable ML odds are .
- Related: Super Bowl odds for the 2023 NFL season
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||15th||17th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||30th||18th|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||338.6||329.6|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||379.5||340|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||240.9||224.7|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||1||1|
Minnesota Vikings at Denver broncos
This matchup recently showcased little intrigue, yet it reversed course with both teams on at least a three-game winning streak. Despite just a two-game sample size, QB Joshua Dobbs has provided the Vikings’ offense with arguably more upside than it had with Kirk Cousins (torn ACL).
Granted, the Broncos’ defense has seen a resurgence with All-Pro safety Justin Simmons back in the lineup. From Week 5 onward, they’ve yielded the 13th-fewest EPA per play. But Denver could also be considered overvalued in the betting market, especially given its plus-seven turnover differential in the last two games. Moreover, it’s also notched an average drive-starting field position from roughly the 35-yard line since Week 7, good for the best in the NFL. Hence, it has benefited from its fair share of positive variance that isn’t sustainable.
The most valuable Vikings odds to win straight up are currently .
|Offense Ranking OFF RNK||10th||24th|
|Defense Ranking DEF RNK||12th||31st|
|Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG||350.7||299|
|Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG||320.3||385.3|
|Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG||258.6||183.3|
|Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG||2||1.4|
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