Week 10 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Betting

Underdogs are an attractive option regarding NFL Week 10 odds. Selecting the most valuable ones across NFL betting sites isn’t easy. That’s where TheLines comes in handy. Here are three plus-money teams to consider if you typically put some pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager of mine. You can read those NFL best bets later in the week.

Click on any of the following odds to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The prices below are the best available in your state.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

For those who have backed the Cardinals’ odds of late, the results haven’t been pretty. After covering their first three games of the season, they’ve failed to do so in five of their last six meetings. Arizona’s offense has generated the league’s fourth-fewest EPA per play. Meanwhile, Jonathan Gannon’s defense ranks No. 31 in that department.

However, quarterback Kyle Murray is set to make his 2023 debut as long as he doesn’t undergo any setbacks in practice after suffering a torn ACL in Week 14 of last season. Hence, it’s a potential buy-low opportunity on the offense. Additionally, their ground-centric attack is up against a Falcons defense that has yielded a top-10 rushing EPA and success rate, respectively. For context, a play is deemed successful if it gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.

The loss of run-stopping nose tackle Grady Jarrett (ACL) doesn’t help. If you’re interested in backing this underdog straight up, the best ML odds are .

STATS
Falcons logo Falcons ATL
Cardinals logo Cardinals ARI
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 17th 20th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 11th 26th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 334.3 324.1
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 321.1 355.7
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 207.3 184.9
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.6 1.1

Washington commanders at Seattle Seahawks

After the Commanders’ odds were initially bet down from the look-ahead line on Sunday night, the spread reverted to Seahawks -6.5 at most sportsbooks. The presumption is Geno Smith & Co. will bounce back after their blowout loss in Baltimore. Nevertheless, the market could still be overvaluing Pete Carroll’s crew, which has faced the fifth-easiest schedule to date.

Plus, Washington QB Sam Howell has manufactured the NFL’s sixth-highest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) since Week 4, behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. This metric tells us how many more (or fewer) passes a quarterback completes compared to what a quarterback throwing the same distance per pass would complete. Hence, Howell is outperforming expectations in what’s essentially his rookie campaign. But he’ll need to deliver at Lumen Field — one of the most difficult road environments.

The best number for the Commanders to win outright is .

STATS
Commanders logo Commanders WAS
Seahawks logo Seahawks SEA
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 23rd 21st
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 32nd 30th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 312.8 322.9
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 388.9 371.4
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 219.1 230
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.9 1

Denver Broncos at buffalo bills

Unlike the Seahawks’ odds, the Bills’ odds were adjusted in the opposite direction — and stood pat — in a bounce-back spot. Remember that they fell to the Bengals on Sunday Night Football, lessening their chances of notching a playoff spot. Denver’s defense has scuffled for much of the year, yet it’s reinserted key pieces amid its two-game winning streak, including safety Justin Simmons and linebacker Baron Browning. The Broncos are coming off a bye week, to boot, which certainly plays to their advantage after Josh Allen and Buffalo underwent a physical game in Cincinnati.

The Broncos’ ML odds of claiming their third consecutive victory are .

STATS
Broncos logo Broncos DEN
Bills logo Bills BUF
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 26th 4th
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 29th 9th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 298.4 374.5
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 370.8 307.2
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 191.9 244.4
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.3 1.6

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