2024 NFL Bets: Team Ranking To Go Worst To First In Division Odds

You’ve come to the right place if you’re perusing longshot bets. At least one team emerged from the cellar and won its division over 19 of the last 21 seasons. The Texans accomplished this feat last year, finishing with a 10-7 record after the Jaguars kicked off this trend from AFC South odds. Which team is worth considering ahead of the 2024 NFL campaign? Let’s appraise the candidates for your NFL bets and count down to No. 1.

Click any odds for NFL betting markets to place a bet. The prices listed below are the best among NFL betting sites.

8. New England Patriots (New England Patriots +8000 on DraftKings)

While I don’t have the Patriots as low as some staff members at TheLines in our NFL power rankings, bettors are lighting their money on fire by picking New England to win the loaded AFC East. Even if rookie quarterback Drake Maye earns the starting job, he doesn’t possess nearly as much upside as the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels regarding NFL longshot bets.

Despite losing the most games to injury on defense and the third-most on offense in 2023, possibly signaling positive regression in those areas, I have New England projected for just over five wins.

AFC East Odds

7. Arizona Cardinals (Arizona Cardinals +450 on Bet365)

The Cardinals received their fair share of offseason buzz in a weak NFC. It’s somewhat warranted with the duel-threat Kyler Murray at the helm and a bonafide ROY candidate in Marvin Harrison Jr. — priced at Marvin Harrison Jr. +1600 on FanDuel. But outside of that betting market, I’m not bullish on Arizona, especially given its lackluster defensive talent and arduous schedule in the early goings.

NFC West Odds

6. Carolina Panthers (Carolina Panthers +3500 on Bet365)

In positive news, Bryce Young has nowhere to go but up. Young delivered the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback among qualified QBs in his rookie campaign. Surprisingly, now-Lions QB Jared Goff manufactured a lower EPA as a rookie before teaming up with Sean McVay. The addition of Panthers coach Dave Canales, who helped rejuvenate Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season, could be just what the doctor ordered for Young.

With upgraded weaponry (led by former Steelers wideout Dionte Johnson), bolstered pass protection, and defensive refinements at every level, Carolina is in line to become another team to win a few games and surpass its win total in the following season.

However, I’m not willing to bet on Young making an even bigger leap to compete for the NFC South crown — even in a weak division.

NFC South Odds

5. Los Angeles chargers (Los Angeles Chargers +1800 on FanDuel)

Jim Harbaugh’s bunch is tied for the second-highest win total, following a season of five or fewer wins since 2000. There’s obvious market respect for the ex-49ers coach and QB Justin Herbert (foot), who returned to Tuesday’s practice after rumors that he may miss the regular-season opener against the Raiders.

Nevertheless, there are substantial holes at wide receiver and along the defensive line. Betting on the Chargers’ odds in Harbaugh’s return to the NFL is a difficult sell, considering it would require upending Patrick Mahomes and the defending champion Chiefs.

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AFC West Odds

4. Tennessee Titans (Tennessee Titans +1400 on FanDuel)

Former Bengals play-caller Bryan Callahan should reinvigorate Tennessee’s offense, which seldom used 11 personnel last year. That only benefits sophomore signal-caller Will Levis. Still, I was not a fan of overpaying for wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who showed signs of aging late in 2023.

Parting ways with 30-year-old running back Derrick Henry made sense, but he also accounted for the lion’s share of the Titans’ offense in recent years. If Levis doesn’t improve, Tennessee’s ceiling likely settles in the six- or seven-win range, in line with their NFL win totals, even with an improved secondary highlighted by ex-Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Snead.

You’re probably wondering why the Titans are ranked fourth in the article. Outside of the top team on this list, I’m having trouble finding a team that’s truly worth your sportsbook dollars. That said, they might represent a valuable underdog, already down to Tennessee Titans +4 (-110) on Bet365 against ROY favorite Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 1.

AFC South Odds

3. Washington commanders (Washington Commanders +200 on FanDuel)

Since 2000, 10 teams have had a new head coach and a top-five pick at QB, starting at least half of the schedule. Six of them busted over the win total, including Robert Griffin III with Washington in 2012. Similarly, Daniels could greatly exceed the market expectations from the get-go. For context, the Commanders are Washington Commanders +4 (-108) on DraftKings at Tampa Bay among the odds for NFL Week 1.

Despite the Cowboys’ potential to regress, the Eagles firmly control the division. But if offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury gets the most out of Daniels in a high-ceiling offense, these longshot odds aren’t farfetched for your NFL bets.

For bettors who buy into this notion, Dan Quinn is Dan Quinn +330 on FanDuel to win NFL Coach of the Year in his inaugural season with the Commanders. This option seems like the more valuable wager.

NFC East Odds

2. Chicago bears (Chicago Bears +1600 on FanDuel)

Williams, who is favored to win Offensive ROY at Caleb Williams +300 on DraftKings, steps into a terrific situation. For one, Chicago fortified its skill-position talent with standout wideout Keenan Allen, rookie Rome Odunze, and veteran running back D’Andre Swift. The Bears are also projected to take on the NFL’s easiest platter of pass defenses.

Then again, every NFC North team could contend for the playoffs. The Lions and Packers are known commodities in that regard. Don’t put it past Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell to elevate Sam Darnold to greater heights, either.

Hence, Chicago would need a boatload of injury luck to cash in for your NFL bets.

NFC North Odds

1. Cincinnati Bengals (Cincinnati Bengals +850 on DraftKings)

Predictably, the Bengals’ odds rank No. 1 in this worst-to-first list. Cincinnati’s AFC North odds were the first futures bet for the 2024 NFL season. You can read more about my belief in Joe Burrow and Co. in my NFL division bets article. There is even another longshot futures wager that made the cut.

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AFC North Odds