NFL Division Odds: Why Bengals & Saints Can Upset Favorites

Less than a month until NFL Week 1 odds kick-off, bets to win each division are piling up across sportsbooks. Even at a steep Kansas City Chiefs -900 on FanDuel price, the Kansas City Chiefs’ odds to win the AFC West are the NFL’s most-bet team by handle at BetMGM Sportsbook. Nevertheless, I’ve gone against the grain for my NFL division bets, highlighting undervalued teams. Let’s dive in.

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Eli’s nfl bets: Bengals To Win afc north

Will Cincinnati Reascend?

In 19 of the last 21 seasons, at least one franchise has gone from worst to first, winning the division after finishing in the cellar. Last year, the Houston Texans accomplished this feat, tallying a 12-5 record after a three-win campaign. In 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars made the leap. The year prior, the Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North before nearly upsetting the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 56.

No team boasts a larger gap in last year’s strength of schedule (SOS) versus my projection for this season than Cincinnati. Joe Burrow’s squad will face a last-place SOS after finishing fourth in the division in 2023. That aids the Bengals’ odds of winning the AFC North.

Reasons For Optimism

Burrow’s season-ending wrist injury, suffered against the Ravens in mid-November, wasn’t his only setback. He entered the season with a calf strain, ranking last in EPA + CPOE among qualified quarterbacks in the first month. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense ranked No. 28 in EPA per play allowed while also surrendering the highest percentage of explosive plays (10.85%). Late-season injuries helped terminate its playoff hopes.

Lou Anarumo’s unit ranked No. 7 and 16 in defensive DVOA in the previous two years. The departure of run-stuffing nose tackle D.J. Reader is a weighty loss, but free-agent pickup Sheldon Rankins and two draft picks (Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson) can fill the void.

Additionally, the reacquisition of safety Vonn Bell and the signing of ex-Ravens ballhawk Geno Stone provide Anarumo with two stalwarts at a premium position.

Speaking of Baltimore, the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who showcases stunts, simulated pressures, and slot blitzes at a high rate, is significant from a scheming standpoint. The Ravens will also lack the element of surprise, which offensive coordinator Todd Monken brought to the table in his first season with two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson.

Assuming Burrow’s right wrist has healed as expected, the Bengals are primed to reclaim the throne atop the AFC North standings.

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Eli’s nfl bets: Saints To Win NFC South

Following the signing of veteran QB Kirk Cousins, oddsmakers quickly altered Falcons odds to win the NFC South. Despite coming off an Achilles injury, Cousins is an obvious upgrade over Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

Then again, veteran signal-callers like Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson struggled to acclimate to their new offenses in the early goings. Atlanta’s first three games are no picnic, as it faces upper-echelon defensive fronts via the Steelers, Eagles, and Chiefs.

The Falcons have major pass-rushing question marks after veterans Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree exited. Tampa Bay, slotted behind Atlanta among division odds, also lost its top QB disturbant in Shaq Barrett (retired). Combine that with the Buccaneers’ turnover luck (13 fumble recoveries) and potential offensive regression without Dave Canales at the controls. There is enough cause for a longshot bet to win the NFC South.

Believe in ‘Who Dat’

Derek Carr’s naysayers probably vomited over this headline, but hear me out. New blood is in the room, with the Saints first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak replacing the vanilla Pete Carmichael.

Following a one-year stint as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator, Kubiak will presumably stick to a heavy dose of pre-snap motion. Last year, New Orleans ranked No. 31 in this department and finished last in play-action usage. In Kubiak’s scheme, there’s room for upside with skill-position threats like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed.

Among 41 QBs with a minimum of 500 attempts in the last three years, Carr’s check-down rate (12.77%) ranks second highest. In contrast, 49ers QB Brock Purdy accrued the lowest ranking (5.71%). Even bettors dubious about Carr’s pocket presence should concede that Kubiak will aim to push the ball downfield more often.

Moreover, the Saints’ passing attack saw the NFL’s biggest disparity between early and late-down EPA per pass attempt. Kubiak’s system features YAC and vertical elements, which will inevitably lessen this gap. It should also help lead to close-game regression, with Carr and Co. manufacturing six one-possession losses in 2023.

Granted, New Orleans parted ways with veterans Andrus Peat and James Hurst along the offensive line. Ryan Ramcyzk (knee) is expected to miss the entire season. Incoming rookie Taliese Fuaga can only solve so much and will likely undergo growing pains. But this sentiment is already baked into the Saints’ odds. Kubiak’s creativity could help mitigate the issues up front, too.

The additions of linebacker Willie Gay (from the defending champion Chiefs) and defensive end Chase Young deliver ample speed across their top-10 defense. If this group receives positive injury luck, it is set up for a stronger campaign against a soft NFL strength of schedule, as measured by sportsbook win totals.

Bonus Pick For NFL Bets

You can find the best odds for the Saints in various markets with TheLines.com’s price shopping tool, which includes the best NFL Week 1 promos. Despite Dennis Allen’s shortcomings as a head coach, there are worse bets to be had in a wide-open division.

Considering my belief in Kubiak, I’ve added a small play on Olave to lead the league in receiving yards. Last season, he compiled the fourth-best raw separation grade against man coverage and ranked in the top 10 among yards per route run (YPRR), per Pro Football Focus.

NFL Futures Bets	Odds	Units
Bengals To Win AFC North	+165 (BetMGM Sportsbook)	0.50
Saints To Win NFC South	+475 (Circa)	0.50
Olave Most Receiving Yards	+2900 (FanDuel Sportsbook)	0.05

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