NFL Best Regular Season Record Odds: 5 Teams To Consider

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Written By Jeffrey Schreiber | Last Updated
nfl best regular season record odds

With the NFL season on the horizon, it’s time to look at NFL futures. One fun market is NFL best regular season record odds. The Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and Eagles are the 2023 favorites at BetMGM. We will dig through three potential teams among longshots of at least 10-1 odds that could have a path to the 1-seed in their conference. Before locking in your wager, always shop for the best prices across the best NFL betting websites.

San Francisco 49ers

NFL Best Regular Season Record Odds:

Rookie QB Brock Purdy took over the 49ers offense in Week 13. “Mr. Irrelevant” did not lose a regular season game and looked like an experienced starter. The 49ers’ closed the season, ranking fourth in EPA per play. There should be plenty of continuity heading into 2023, with all the 49ers key offensive pieces returning.

Brandon Aiyuk flashed natural chemistry with Purdy down last year’s stretch, pacing the 49ers in targets, catches, and yards on Purdy’s throws. George Kittle scored seven TDs on only 34 targets from Purdy. One of the NFC’s top tight ends, he also finished No. 5 in receiving yards and No. 2 in TDs in 2022.

The defensive unit for the 49ers excelled at limiting big plays on the ground, allowing ten or more yards on just 5.9% of carries, the league’s top mark. San Francisco’s secondary made strides last year. In 2021, the 49ers ranked 23rd in the rate of allowing 20 or more yards through the air but improved to 11th in 2022. The unit returns primarily intact from a season ago.

The 49ers continue to be benefactors of a soft schedule with the fifth-easiest projected schedule of opponents in 2023. The 49ers are favorites in all six games against the division this season. After acquiring running back Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco closed the season with ten straight regular-season victories and added two more wins in the playoffs.

The 49ers posted the best winning percentage against teams that finished 2022 with a winning record. San Francisco also won a league-high 11 games by more than one score despite playing more than half the season with its third-string quarterback.

49ers 2023 Schedule

Please note: games in August are preseason games and do not count towards NFL best regular season record odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL Best Regular Season Record Odds:

Trevor Lawrence took a massive sophomore leap transitioning from the toxic Urban Meyer era to Doug Pederson in 2022.

Lawrence was No. 10 among qualified quarterbacks in passer rating and No. 3 in completions of 20+ yards, despite ranking 18th in percentage of those attempts. With obvious room for growth, Lawrence finished the back half of the 2022 season second in EPA per attempt.

From Week 9 and on, Lawrence posted 17 total TD, 2 INT, 106.8 rating. Lawrence was the only QB in the NFL last year to average a target depth of at least 7.25 yards on 500+ attempts but throw fewer than ten interceptions.

The Jaguars downfield passing game is virtually certain to expand with the addition of stud wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley demonstrated dominant play-making ability en route to the NFL’s fifth-most receiving yards and a league-high 23 receptions of more than 20 yards in 2020. Christian Kirk lacks Ridley’s ceiling but is a safer bet after leading 2022’s Jaguars in catches, yards, and TDs.

In the running game, Travis Etienne didn’t miss a game last year. Etienne gained 1,441 yards from scrimmage, which ranked No. 10 among RBs.

Jacksonville’s defense ranked third in preasure rate generated last season. The unit also finished fourth in yards before contact allowed per carry to running backs. The production is there to support this as a defense on the rise.

The AFC South division also remains extremely weak. Jacksonville’s schedule No. 7 easiest by opponent win totals.

Jacksonville won six of its final seven games to grab a playoff spot. Pederson provided stability and significantly improved the team. With more familiarity between the players and coach, the Jaguars starting stronger this season is very possible.

Jaguars 2023 Schedule

Detroit Lions

NFL Best Regular Season Record Odds:

Jared Goff enters year No. 2 under the control of a Lions offense that ranked No. 5 in scoring and No. 10 in pass attempts under OC Ben Johnson. The Lions displayed the sixth-best offense overall by EPA per play and ranked third in EPA per dropback in 2022.

Detroit will return every noteworthy pass-game contributor, while adding first-round selection RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam LaPorta, and eventually WR Jameson Williams. Goff is expected to engineer a productive offense behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.

Amon-Ra St. Brown followed his excellent rookie campaign with an even better sophomore season. He finished eighth among qualifying receivers in yards per route run. St. Brown has at least six receptions in 18 of his last 22 games.

Following their Week 8 loss, the Lions fired their defensive backs coach. They went from surrendering 32.14 points per game to 20.2 and from 6.51 yards per play to 5.97. They improved in red zone efficiency by more than 20%. Offseason additions of Emmanuel Moseley, Cam Sutton, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson should only bolster those late-season improvements.

After being favored before the season in only three of 34 games over the last two years combined, the Lions currently are favored in 11 games and are predicted to finish in first place in the NFC North.

The Lions have the 14th-easiest schedule in 2023 by opponent win totals.

Lions 2023 Schedule

Honorable Mentions

Although the Saints and Falcons do not have the overall roster talent of the three teams above, we will at least acknowledge that they have the two easiest schedules going into the season by opponent win totals in the betting market. That’s at least worth taking a look at when handicapping this market.

New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons