NFL Stats, Advanced Metrics For AFC And NFC Conference Championship Games
Only two games are left to decide the two teams that will comprise Super Bowl 58 odds. Conference championship weekend is here, and those interested in sports betting sites will seek an edge on these games. Looking at Lions, 49ers, Chiefs, and Ravens stats can help narrow down a vast array of betting options. These stats and advanced metrics can aid everything from spread betting to player props.
Let’s dive into some Lions at 49ers and Chiefs at Ravens stats to see where each team might have edges. Peruse NFL playoffs odds below to find the best prices available for each team.
AFC Championship
Basic Chiefs vs. Ravens Stats
| Ravens | Stat (Rank) | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 28.7 (2) | Points per game | 22.3 (14) |
| 5 (3) | Yards per rush | 4.4 (9) |
| 7.8 (3) | Yards per pass | 7 (18) |
| 48.99 (32) | Passing rate | 60.48 (7) |
| 4.4 (23) | Yards per rush allowed | 4.5 (25) |
| 5.2 (1) | Yards per pass allowed | 5.3 (2) |
| 63.01 (6) | Red zone TD rate | 52.11 (19) |
| 40.82 (2) | Opp. red zone TD rate | 51.85 (10) |
Ravens stats look stronger overall, but both teams have largely similar profiles in some senses. For instance, neither team excelled in stopping the run, but both were elite against opposing passing games. Baltimore was better in the red zone by some margin, especially on offense.
The Chiefs really struggled to convert in the red zone down the stretch. Amazingly, they put together a stretch of six scores in seven drives against the Bengals, but all for field goals. The kicking continued against Miami, and only against Buffalo in the divisional round did they finally get into gear and score three touchdowns. Even then, a Mecole Hardman fumble cost them near the goal line.
Perhaps the most interesting of all Ravens stats is that no team ran the ball more frequently than Baltimore this year. In fact, the Ravens were the only team in the NFL that ran more often than it passed. That should push a plus matchup here against a K.C. unit that struggled, stopping the run all year at 4.5 YPA allowed.
If both teams have success running the ball early, that could play to the under, particularly with NFL weather indicating there could be disadvantageous conditions for the passers.
Now, onto the advanced numbers.
Advanced Chiefs vs. Ravens Stats
| Ravens | Stat (Rank) | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| +25.2% (3) | Weighted offense DVOA | +7.4% (10) |
| -24.8% (1) | Weighted defense DVOA | -9.1% (5) |
| +5.2% (2) | Weighted special teams DVOA | +3.1% (6) |
| +55.2% (1) | Total weighted DVOA | +19.6% (5) |
| +0.009 (3) | Rush offense EPA/play | -0.112 (18) |
| 45.7% (3) | Rush offense Success Rate | 34.8% (26) |
| -0.097 (16) | Rush defense EPA/play | -0.034 (28) |
| 41% (22) | Rush defense Success Rate | 39.9% (15) |
| 0.112 (6) | Pass offense EPA/play | 0.082 (12) |
| 48.6% (6) | Pass offense Success Rate | 48% (8) |
| -0.142 (2) | Pass defense EPA/play | -0.1 (3) |
| 40.7% (4) | Pass defense Success Rate | 39.7% (2) |
Through the lens of DVOA, the Ravens have one of the strongest teams in history. Their efficiency this season was basically off the charts. Keep in mind that DVOA, unlike other stats, adjusts for the competition. So, the fact they faced a slew of backup QBs is theoretically factored in.
The Chiefs lagged on both sides of the ball in rushing stats. Short yardage has been an issue for years behind an offensive line built to protect Patrick Mahomes rather than bulldoze opposing fronts. Wednesday’s announcement that All-Pro guard Joe Thuney will likely miss the game doesn’t figure to help. Continue to monitor NFL injuries for more.
The one ray of hope in the Chiefs’ favor is that the offense has performed better since the playoffs started. Particularly in the game against Buffalo, the Chiefs put together one of the most efficient passing performances of the season. Looking at only the playoffs, the Chiefs’ passing attack has been the third-most efficient behind only the Rams and Packers. Mahomes ranks ahead of all other playoff QBs in EPA/play generated.
The key for the Chiefs might be getting an early lead and getting the Ravens into a negative script. If the Ravens can lean on their rushing, they might cruise to victory if they are the ones up early. But if Lamar Jackson has to pass, he’ll be facing an elite unit with a group of playmakers that isn’t all that inspiring.
In other words, look for a possible live betting opportunity on either team if the script looks to play in their favor.
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NFC Championship
Basic 49ers Vs. Lions Stats
| 49ers | Stat (Rank) | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 28.6 (3) | Points per game | 27.2 (5) |
| 4.8 (4) | Yards per rush | 4.5 (5) |
| 9.1 (1) | Yards per pass | 7.6 (5) |
| 51.93 (30) | Passing rate | 56.37 (21) |
| 4.2 (17) | Yards per rush allowed | 3.8 (5) |
| 5.9 (5) | Yards per pass allowed | 7.3 (30) |
| 67.65 (1) | Red zone TD rate | 66.2 (2) |
| 53.06 (12) | Opp. red zone TD rate | 64.41 (29) |
The first thing that jumps out is that eyesore of a Lions pass defense. While they have done a good job getting pressure (third in pressure rate entering last weekend), the secondary simply cannot guard the door.
That manifested itself in the team’s first two games of the playoffs, particularly against opposing WR1s. Puka Nacua (181 yards) and Mike Evans (147 yards) made mincemeat of Cam Sutton and his fellow outside corners. Already, significant action has hit on the over for Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards. An opener in the low 70s has been hammered up to .
Both teams love to pound the rock, which may point toward the under if the clock continues to churn.
On the other hand, the 49ers had the most efficient passing game in the NFL by an extremely wide margin. The difference between San Francisco and Miami in second was the same as the difference between Miami and the 14th-ranked Falcons.
Advanced 49ers Vs. Lions Stats
| 49ers | Stat (Rank) | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| +29.6% (1) | Weighted offense DVOA | +14.8% (6) |
| -7% (8) | Weighted defense DVOA | +3.7% (22) |
| -3.3% (29) | Weighted special teams DVOA | +1.3% (14) |
| +33.4% (2) | Total weighted DVOA | +12.4% (7) |
| +0.034 (1) | Rush offense EPA/play | -0.014 (6) |
| 47% (1) | Rush offense Success Rate | 41.5% (8) |
| -0.041 (26) | Rush defense EPA/play | -0.174 (4) |
| 41.3% (24) | Rush defense Success Rate | 36.5% (8) |
| 0.298 (1) | Pass offense EPA/play | 0.111 (7) |
| 55.3% (1) | Pass offense Success Rate | 49.2% (5) |
| -0.057 (6) | Pass defense EPA/play | 0.074 (25) |
| 43.9% (7) | Pass defense Success Rate | 47.4% (25) |
Unsurprisingly, given their tremendously efficient offense, DVOA loves the 49ers as well.
And the efficiency numbers don’t like the Lions’ defense much more than the basic ones. DVOA and EPA/play have this unit as merely bad instead of one of the worst in the NFL.
The advanced numbers highlight an area where the Lions may find some footing. The rushing offense has a plus matchup against a 49ers unit that’s sometimes been beaten on the ground. Detroit ranks No. 1 in Adjusted Line Yards and boasts an elite offensive line, albeit without G Jonah Jackson this week. If they can replicate what teams like even the lowly Cardinals have done on the ground, that would greatly help their cause.
In playoffs, the Lions have had a slightly better offense than the 49ers overall. They rank ahead by both EPA/play and Success Rate despite the 49ers facing a Green Bay defense that was battered by opposing offenses for much of the season.
However, the question remains as to how the Lions can find any stops against this passing game. Deebo Samuel may sit out, but he’s a smaller part of the downfield attack than Aiyuk and George Kittle. And Jauan Jennings has filled in capably, which may offer an alternate route to attacking this Lions unit in the prop markets. The NFL betting apps have yet to release numbers on Jennings with his role up in the air.
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