NFC & AFC No. 1 Seed Odds: Can 49ers Catch Eagles? Chiefs Vulnerable Favorite?

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
week 14 nfl mvp odds

With odds to make the NFL playoffs shifting faster than quicksand each week for Wild Card spots, intrigue also abounds in the race for the No. 1 seed in both the NFC and AFC. The Eagles seem dominant but face two straight challenging games in the NFC, and all four AFC division leaders currently have three losses. The battles for a massively advantageous playoff bye week and home-field advantage are heating up. The odds are wild in both conferences. Let’s dive into NFL 1-seed odds and the outlook for the contenders.

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NFL 1-Seed Odds: NFC Conference

Eagles Will Be Tough To Catch

The Eagles are obviously favorites in NFL 1-seed odds, having two fewer losses than their opposition. However, for a team with a two-loss advantage, and the last four weeks of the season against only one team in a playoff spot (Seattle), their advantage could shrink in the next two weeks.

Philadelphia hosts San Francisco this week, and the 49ers are road favorites. The Niners have also gotten enough betting respect to reach a key number. The Eagles then have to fly down to Dallas, where they are again underdogs. Lose both games, and potentially there are three NFC teams with three losses (assuming Dallas wins this week and SF wins in Week 14, as they’re favored to do).

The Cowboys would be leading the NFC East at this point, but the problem for the Cowboys is that they wouldn’t control their destiny in NFL 1-seed odds, even if they win out. They would need both the Niners to lose under this scenario, since San Fran beat both Dallas and Philly head to head.

The Boys would also need the Birds to lose again. Because the Cowboys have three NFC losses, and the Eagles would only have two in this scenario, they’d lose an NFC East tiebreaker to Philadelphia (assuming both go 5-1 in the NFC East). Given that they’d need help from two teams, Dallas only has a very small probability in NFL 1-seed odds.

Obviously, if Philadelphia beats San Francisco this weekend, bets on the Niners are dead. If Philly wins they’d have a three-loss cushion on everyone else in the NFC with five weeks to go. It would be over. But Vegas has them as an underdog, because respected bettors have steadily bet the 49ers this week. The Niners are first in EPA on offfense, four spots better than Philly, and fourth in EPA defense, 19 spots above the Eagles. These two teams are not the same.

Philly’s luck in close games could run out, and this is the last week to get a good price on the Niners. I’ve bet San Francisco.

Eagles Upcoming Schedule

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Cowboys Upcoming Schedule

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49ers Upcoming Schedule

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NFL 1-Seed Odds: AFC Conference

Are The Chiefs Inevitable?

The Ravens are currently the 1-seed, courtesy of not having had their bye week yet, but all three other division winners are 6+ point favorites this week. That means assuming all four division winners will be 9-3 after Week 13 is fairly safe. From there, it’s a bit of a disaster.

The Jaguars close with only two games against teams with an above .500 record, and one of those is the Browns, who are on QB4 at this point if Joe Flacco starts. Other than hosting Baltimore, their remaining schedule is incredibly easy.

The Ravens have to go to Jacksonville, play the Niners, host Miami, and play Pittsburgh again. Given their strength of schedule they have the most challenging road.

Miami also has a hard schedule to close the year, ending with Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo in the final three weeks. Their next three weeks are quite easy, but after that, their schedule tightens significantly.

Kansas City also cruises down the rest of the season, with Buffalo next week as their only game against a team at or above .500 with their starting QB. Getting to dodge Joe Burrow when they play the Bengals aids both KC and Jacksonville.

Given the strength of schedule, Jacksonville and KC are correctly the favorites in NFL 1-seed odds for the AFC right now. The Jags have the hardest game left of either of them, but the Bills are not sufficiently weak to merit much of a gap. The advanced numbers say the Chiefs are the better team and have the tiebreaker over Jacksonville. The Chiefs are top six in both Offensive and Defensive EPA, while the Jags are 19th and 11th, respectively.

The Chiefs are undervalued in the market because when they lose, the offense looks atrocious. Against the Broncos and then against the Eagles in the second half, it looked difficult for the Chiefs to do much of anything. But Mahomes can clean up the turnovers easily, and when the Chiefs receivers don’t drop the ball they look like the Chiefs.

KC’s the right bet here for me. They win ties over both Miami and Jacksonville, they have a baby soft schedule, and they’re still plus money (for now). Best of luck betting NFL 1-seed odds!

Chiefs Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

Ravens Upcoming Schedule

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Dolphins Upcoming Schedule

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Jaguars Upcoming Schedule

No season schedule data available.

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