How New NFL Kickoff Rule Could Affect Betting This Season

The NFL has implemented a new kickoff rule that may have some serious betting implications. Under the previous rule, players on the kicking team could begin running downfield as soon as the kicker kicked the ball. The new rule, first seen in the XFL, prevents the kicking team from moving until the ball is caught or hits the ground. The rule will run for a single-season trial period. Before looking at NFL Week 1 odds, fans may want to consider the macro implications for scoring.

New NFL Kickoff Rule

Here are the notable changes from the new kickoff rule. The Steelers also posted a great YouTube video with animation showing the mechanics of the new kickoffs.

• The kicking team kicks from their 35-yard line
• Ten kicking team players line up on the receiving team’s 40-yard line. Five players on each side of the ball.
• Nine or more members of the receiving team line up between their 30 and 35-yard line
• A maximum of two returners can line up in the landing zone and can move at any time before or during the kick
• The ten players on the kicking team cannot move, and the kicker cannot cross the 50-yard line until the ball hits the ground or a player in the landing zone or the end zone
• The receiving team must return any kick that falls in the landing zone (between the goal line and the 20-yard line)
• Any kick that hits in the landing zone and then goes into the end zone – must be returned or downed by the receiving team – if downed, then it’s a touchback to the 20-yard-line
• Kicks that land in the end zone, stays inbounds – if downed, then touchback to 30-yard-line
• Any kick that goes out of the back of the end zone (in the air or bounces) – touchback to 30-yard-line
• If a kick hits the landing zone and then goes into the end zone, it must be returned or downed by the receiving team
• If a kick is short of the landing zone, it is treated as out-of-bounds
• No fair catches
• Can only do an onside kick in the fourth quarter; you must declare an onside kick play

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How The New NFL Kickoff Rule Changes Games & Betting

With the new NFL kickoff rule, bettors will notice far more kickoff returns than last season. The 2023 NFL season saw a historical low in kickoff returns at 22%. The NFL implemented a rule during the 2023 season allowing the receiving team to “fair catch” kicks inside their own 25-yard line. This resulted in kick returners either using “fair catch” or letting kicks go into/through the endzone for touchbacks.

During the entire 2023 season, only ten kickoff returns went for at least 60 yards. From 2001 to 2010, more than 34 times per season, a return of at least 60 yards happened. The new rules will likely increase returns and improve starting field position.

Improved Field Position

The NFL Football Operations data and analytics team estimates the receiving team will return 50–60% of kicks. This is based on an analysis that compares XFL data and its similar kickoff format.

In the XFL during the 2023 season, teams returned kicks 97% of the time. The XFL also saw better field positions for returning teams. The average field position on returns was the 29.1-yard line. Data suggests NFL drives will start closer to the 30-year line after a kickoff return as opposed to the 25-yeard line average in previous seasons.

Below is the field position after returns for the XFL in the 2023 season based on where the ball lands. Additionally, the percentage of times the field position starts at the 30-yard line for each area. The ball is placed at the 30-yard line on kicks that land in the end zone.

2023 XFL Field Position After Returns

Kickoff Landing Yard Line	Average Field Position	Median Field Position	Inside 30
16-20	31.7 yd line	29.0 yd line	53.8%
11-15	29.3 yd line	28.0 yd line	63.6%
6-10	29.5 yd line	27.0 yd line	61.0%
1-5	28.7 yd line	26.0 yd line	68.7%
In Endzone	21.8 yd line	23.0 yd line	100%

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Higher Scoring Games

Better field position improves an offense’s ability to score on a given drive. Starting with possession on the 30-yard line versus below the 25-yard line may result in more total points in games, which may lead to teams hitting the Over more often than the Under-filled 2023 season.

The average points scored by teams in the 2023 NFL season was 21.8 points per game, down each season from the year before since scoring peaked during the 2020 COVID year. Through Week 6 of the regular season, Unders hit at a historical 61.3% rate. Including the postseason, only 10 teams’ games went Over more often than they went Under.

The causation may not be as high as the increase in defenses playing two deep safeties and limiting the deep passing game. However, it is not crazy to notice a correlation between all-time lows in NFL kickoff returns and teams scoring fewer points. Bettors should remember the new kickoff rules when looking at NFL odds for every game this season. The new format may result in the Over hitting more often than last season.

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Comparing NFL And XFL Kickoff Numbers

There are important differences when comparing the XFL under its kicking format to the NFL heading into next season. For starters, the NFL is far more talented than the XFL, meaning one cannot expect the same results between the two leagues. XFL teams also play ten games a season compared to 17 games in the NFL. Looking at kickoff return results in the 2023 season for the XFL compared to the NFL simply highlights the potential impact of the new rule for the NFL.

Kickoff Return Stats	NFL	XFL
Total Returns (Total Games)	587 (272)	341 (40)
Return Percent	22%	97%
KR TDs	4	1
Longest Return	99	96
Average Return	24.9 yards	29 yards

NFL Week 1 Totals (Over/Unders)