New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Sunday

Written By Nick Crain | Published at January 25, 2026

Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws in the second quarter against Houston Texans in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images

The New England Patriots will look to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl as they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday in the AFC Conference Championship game. It's the first game of the Sunday slate that features two games, as the field is set to narrow from four remaining teams to two by the end of the night.

Denver may be in position to defend home field as the No. 1 seed, but my Patriots vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks focus on where the betting value actually lies. There's quite a bit of context in this particular matchup that really matters.

Patriots vs Broncos Prediction

Patriots vs Broncos best bet: Patriots -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

This line reflects how difficult it is to win in Denver in January, but New England is one of the few teams built to handle this exact environment. Cold weather, hostile crowd and playoff pressure are not foreign concepts for this franchise, and none of that should be a deterrent here.

The Broncos enter this matchup leaning on Jarrett Stidham with Bo Nix out for the year. While betting against him may be the popular or public angle, it’s still a logical one. It’s hard to see a realistic path where Stidham carries Denver to a conference championship win and a Super Bowl berth against how good New England is.

On the other side, the Patriots have a potential MVP quarterback in Drake May and a pair of running backs that should be difficult to contain. That balance allows New England to control tempo, limit mistakes, and avoid putting the game entirely on May’s arm in brutal conditions. The offensive weapons of the Patriots are vastly underrated and will be showcased on the biggest stage today.

Ultimately, even with Denver being one of the toughest places to play, this feels like a spot where New England finds a way. They’ve been undefeated on the road all season, and laying the points still offers value given the quarterback disparity. Sometimes in the playoffs, it's about which offense can not turn the ball over, and with a backup QB, that's a disadvantage for Denver.

Keep an eye on Stidham being forced to play from behind and make throws he's not comfortable with, resulting in more turnover probability. Conversely, Maye's legs are an underrated part of what makes him dangerous, and if the defense collapses in the red zone, he could score on the run. Ultimately, I have the Patriots winning by a touchdown or more.

Patriots vs Broncos SGP

Patriots -3.5 (-115)
Drake May anytime touchdown scorer (+285)
Jarrett Stidham over 0.5 interceptions (-183)

SGP odds: +1016 (via bet365)

Patriots vs Broncos Odds

Spread: Patriots -3.5 | Broncos +3.5
Moneyline: Patriots -205 | Broncos +185
Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5

Above Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Patriots vs Broncos Betting Trend to Know

Despite Denver earning the No. 1 seed at 14-3, New England finished with the same record and enters this matchup undefeated on the road this season, a remarkable mark for a team heading into a conference championship game.