With the Brooklyn Nets knocking off the Cleveland Cavaliers in Tuesday’s play-in game, Steve Nash’s bunch clinched the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. But the Nets odds are still tied for the fourth-shortest to win the NBA championship () after opening the season as the favorite to claim the title (+240). Is there any value in that number?
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Nets Odds: Gauging Brooklyn Historically
Since 1980, there have only been five other teams seeded fifth or worse to boast NBA title odds of +1000 or lower entering the playoffs.
- 2021: No. 7 Lakers (+400)
- 2015: No. 6 Spurs (+350)
- 2008: No. 6 Suns (+700)
- 2004: No. 5 Mavericks (+1000)
- 2003: No. 5 Lakers (+300)
Among them, the 2003 Lakers represent the only one to win a playoff series. Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal & Co. took down the Timberwolves and then got ousted by the Spurs, which eventually won the NBA title, in six games.
That being said, the 2022 Celtics’ regular season success won’t necessarily translate to the playoffs. Over the last decade, three teams have gone on to win the title after tallying the top-ranked net rating since Jan. 1 of that campaign, which Ime Udoka’s crew also achieved. So Boston’s defensive turnaround may have triggered a market overreaction, especially since it’ll be without forward Robert Williams for at least a majority of these games.
Keep in mind, the Nets opened at -145 (via DraftKings) to win their first-round series against the Celtics before Boston was quickly bet down to -140. The price has settled in at Celtics -130 — with the Nets becoming a +110 series underdog.
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Nets Odds: Finding Market Value
Despite the fact that history is against Brooklyn, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving present the potential to carry the Nets on a deep run. If you’re a believer, there’s more projected value in betting Brooklyn with a series rollover strategy.
Rather than wagering on the Nets to win the East Conference or NBA title, you’d take all of your net winnings from the previous series and place it on them again. If a star-studded team like this one wins, the market would likely follow suit. But there’s still more of a profit to be had than investing in either of the futures markets right now.
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