Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 24
For the first time, the Texas Longhorns visit the Tennessee Volunteers, setting up Arch Manning against his uncle’s alma mater. We offer our Texas vs. Tennessee prediction, break down the odds of this early-season SEC battle and provide our picks for this matchup.
Texas has proven itself more than any college football team in the country in 2026. But despite their lofty No. 1 ranking, there’s one thing that Arch Manning and the Longhorns have yet to prove: whether they can handle a hostile crowd.
After three wins in Austin, Texas faces its first road test of the season. It’s a big one, as the Longhorns travel to Knoxville for the first time to face the Tennessee Volunteers. The schools haven’t played since the 1969 Cotton Bowl and have never met in the regular season. A full Neyland Stadium offers one of the sternest tests in the SEC, the likes of which Texas could not handle a year ago.
The Longhorns didn’t win a single road game in regulation last year. They needed overtime to win at sub-.500 Kentucky and Mississippi State, and they found a way to lose in Gainesville to a 4-8 Florida. That loss kept Texas out of the playoff, something that coach Steve Sarkisian knows deep down even if he’ll never admit it. Given how poorly Texas played away from home last season, this is a true measuring stick for the burnt orange.
Texas vs. Tennessee Odds
The sharp money appears to be favoring Tennessee. The line has dropped a full point from its opening at FanDuel, a sign that money has come in on the home team. Those trends often continue to kickoff, so if you’re planning to play the spread, it’s probably a good idea to grab the Volunteers before the line gets closer to the critical numbers of 3 and 4.
Although FanDuel has moved the spread toward the Volunteers, the moneyline bets haven’t caught up with that. Here are the odds in all three main categories:
- Spread: Texas -5.5 (-110) / Tennessee +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas (-220) / Tennessee (+180)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 54.5 (-112) / Under 54.5 (-108)
These numbers indicate that Texas is a small favorite, and bookmakers expect a higher-scoring contest. If you’re betting the moneyline, you should know that home underdogs win the game outright about 27% of the time. The implied probability of this game gives Tennessee a 31.2% chance to win the game, slightly higher than the average probability for a home underdog.
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- Texas is 0-5 ATS in its past five true road games.
- The Longhorns have scored 21 points or fewer in six of their past seven true road games.
- The under is 4-2 in the past six games in which Texas failed to cover.
- The Longhorns are 3-5 ATS in their past eight games against Power 4 opponents.
Texas’ recent history under Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian shows a team that has really struggled on offense away from Austin. The biggest issue for Texas away from home was that it couldn’t run the football. In their four SEC road games last year, the Longhorns never averaged better than 2.3 yards per carry.
Bettors won't know for sure if that has changed or not until Texas plays a road game. The Longhorns’ performance against Ohio State doesn’t suggest that the ground game has improved. Last year, Texas averaged 4.5 yards per carry in Columbus; the Buckeyes held them to 3.5 yards per carry in Austin.
If Ohio State’s pass rush hadn’t wilted in Austin’s heat, the Longhorns probably would have lost that game. Manning hasn’t yet proven he can will his team to a win without a good ground game away from home.
H2 – Tennessee Betting Trends
- Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its past five games overall.
- The Volunteers have failed to cover in their past five games in Knoxville.
- The Volunteers’ past six wins have all come by at least 20 points.
- Tennessee has scored at least 27 points in eight of its past nine games.
Although the Volunteers haven’t been meeting the expectations of the spread, that appears more to do with the lack of quality opponents. When Tennessee faced a good opponent in Georgia Tech, the Vols tore apart the Yellow Jackets for a 21-point victory.
Tennessee has averaged almost 300 rushing yards per game in 2026. The Volunteers have faced a weaker schedule, but Texas hasn’t shown it can stop a running game like this one. Tennessee appears to have the ability to control the clock, which could force the Texas offense to press.
The Vols aren’t a home underdog very often, but they’re 3-1 ATS when they have been getting points in Knoxville. That includes Alabama’s past two visits, both of which Tennessee won the game outright.
H2 – Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction: Tennessee +5.5 (-110)
The biggest reason to trust Tennessee at home is because Texas has not proven itself away from home. The Longhorns have a big edge in Austin, both because of the crowd and the weather.
Neither will favor Texas against the Volunteers. Tennessee has dominated its first two home games, and the Longhorns haven’t proven that either Arch Manning or the run game has grown enough to handle a road environment. One of the biggest issues Manning faced last year was that Texas could not run the ball away from home.
When a team goes on the road, it needs a good ground game to keep the defense honest and give the quarterback time to settle in and attack. Hollywood Smothers hasn’t shown that he can handle that workload. If the Volunteers can get into the backfield early, history says that they can force Manning to panic.
The public is riding with Manning, as 64% of spread bets are on Texas at this line. But the public is often wrong on tight games, and Tennessee is at its best when expectations are low. A moneyline play or an alternate line bet could be another way to get value on the Vols.
H2 – More Texas vs. Tennessee Picks, Props and Best Bets – Back a Big Day From Bishop
- DeSean Bishop Over 74.5 Rushing Yards: (-114, FanDuel) – Tennessee wants to keep Texas’ offense on the sidelines. It also doesn’t want to put the game in the hands of freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon. Bishop averaged almost six yards per carry last season, and if the Vols are going to win the game, he’s going to need to stay on the field.
- DeSean Bishop Two or More Touchdowns: (+475, DraftKings) – Bishop scored 16 touchdowns last season, and it follows that if Tennessee’s going to ride him in a high-scoring game, he’s likely to hit paydirt multiple times. When Bishop gets at least 14 carries, he has scored two touchdowns in six of his past eight games. Tennessee should give him his numbers, and the junior back will likely produce.
- Arch Manning Under 250.5 passing yards: (-110, Caesars) – Manning has spent the week embroiled in controversy, and he struggled away from Austin last year. He’s not likely to be on top of his game after the week he’s had, and that’s before throwing in Tennessee’s hostile crowd. The Texas offense will likely struggle, making this a solid prop play.
Texas vs. Tennessee Broadcast Info
- Date: September 26, 2026
- Start Time: Noon EDT
- Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn.
- TV and Streaming Options: ABC/Hulu
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