Texas Tech vs. Colorado Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 3: Buffalo Blues Continue

Written By Dan Angell | Published at October 3, 2026

Sep 12, 2026; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Texas Tech running back J'Koby Williams runs the ball against Oregon State during the fourth quarter at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kallie Hansel-Tennes-Imagn Images. Mandatory Credit: Kallie Hansel-Tennes-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.

The Deion Sanders hype train has been sputtering for the Colorado Buffaloes. Once the darlings of college football, Colorado has had problems because the results haven’t matched the attention. And now they face a team that’s had no problems backing up its hype in the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Regarded as the Big 12’s “best team money can buy”, Texas Tech has shown how much cash matters in the NIL era. The Red Raiders won their first Big 12 football title last year, and they appear a good bet to do it again. We break down our Texas Tech vs. Colorado prediction, look at the odds of this Big 12 battle and offer our picks for this game.

Before the season, Texas Tech appeared to have a complete gift of a schedule. The Red Raiders weren’t scheduled to face any of the Big 12’s top teams, and they barely challenged themselves in the non-conference. So far, it’s worked out fine, even if Texas Tech hasn’t looked all that impressive.

That continues with Colorado, which doesn’t look anything like it did two years ago. The Buffaloes won the last meeting with the Red Raiders, but that team was completely different. Colorado came into the Big 12 with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, who masked a lot of the rest of the team’s flaws. They’re now in the NFL, and Deion Sanders has found no replacements. The Buffaloes are just 5-11 in their past 16 games without them, and a mere 1-9 against the Big 12.

Few people expect Colorado to give Texas Tech much of a challenge. Even with the Red Raiders struggling with turnovers, the Buffaloes have barely competed in 2026. Their best win is over Georgia Tech, which hasn’t beaten an FBS team this year.

This game could be decided by what happens early in the contest. If the Red Raiders start slow, Colorado will have a chance. If they’re ready to roll, this could get out of hand.

Texas Tech vs. Colorado Odds

The public seems to think two touchdowns is where this line belongs. The money is on Texas Tech at under two touchdowns, by a two-to-one amount. But considering that the line has dropped two points from its opening, that says that the public thinks the line moved a point too far in the Red Raiders’ direction.

Colorado had been a cover machine as a home dog in Deion Sanders’ first two years in Boulder. However, the Buffaloes got trucked in their past two games as an underdog at Folsom Field. Against Arizona and Arizona State last year, Colorado couldn’t keep either game within 24 points.

Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at Caesars.

Spread: Texas Tech -13.5 (-110) / Colorado +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Texas Tech (-590) / Colorado (+425)
Total (Over/Under): Over 49.5 (-109) / Under 49.5 (-110)

These numbers indicate expectations for a moderately strong offensive showing, which is in line with how both teams like to play. The oddsmakers believe Texas Tech is about 17 points better than Colorado on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says Colorado has just a 19% chance to win the game. That’s well below the standard probability for home underdogs, who cash the moneyline about 27% of the time. It’s not a great number, given the amount of the spread.

Texas Tech Betting Trends

The Red Raiders are 8-0 ATS in their past eight Big 12 road games.
Texas Tech is 1-3 ATS in 2026.
The over is 1-3 in the past four meetings.
The Red Raiders are 23-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2016.0

If Texas Tech is going to go anywhere, Will Hammond has got to stop turning the ball over. The Red Raiders’ signal caller has just four touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, and Texas Tech has gotten away with those mistakes. That kind of play isn’t going to win a championship, but it can handle most teams on Texas Tech’s schedule.

It doesn’t hurt that the Red Raiders have J’Koby Williams ripping off almost six yards per carry on the ground. That’s helped ensure that Hammond’s mistakes have yet to seriously cost Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have enough other pieces to handle a quarterback’s inexperience, as long as it doesn’t continue throughout the season.

Texas Tech’s last showing against Sam Houston showed that dichotomy. Hammond threw three interceptions against the Bearkats, but the Red Raiders still controlled the game. Against Colorado, Texas Tech probably won’t take as many chances.

Colorado Betting Trends

The under is 13-6 following a Colorado loss.
Colorado is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog under Deion Sanders.
The Buffaloes have lost five of six Big 12 games by 10 points or more.
Colorado has scored 14 points or less in three of four games.

Life as the Colorado quarterback under Deion Sanders means one of two things. Either that quarterback will have fast feet and escape the pocket, or he’s going to have a very painful experience. This season has been the latter, as Colorado has allowed 10 sacks already.

Sanders invests heavily in skill positions, but his flash makes it difficult to attract good offensive linemen, who by definition shun the spotlight. That’s a problem against Texas Tech, which might have the fiercest defensive line in the Big 12. The Red Raiders have 10 sacks to their name, and they’re likely to spend plenty of time in the Colorado backfield.

Julian Lewis had shown maturity and fast decision-making in his freshman year, but Sanders isn’t known for his patience. Isaac Wilson takes over as the starter, which could change the equation for Colorado.

Texas Tech vs. Colorado Prediction: Texas Tech -13.5 (-110)

This prediction can easily go wrong if Hammond has another turnover-heavy game. But Colorado’s defense is so suspect that the Red Raiders are likely to win the game in the trenches. The Buffaloes’ biggest weakness continues to come on the line, and Big 12 coaches have figured this out.

Colorado is already showing signs of checking out on the season. The Buffaloes weren’t close against Northwestern and only barely stayed close against Baylor. This appears the perfect time for Texas Tech to make a strong statement and pull away from the beginning.

More Texas Tech vs. Colorado Picks, Props and Best Bets – Williams Leads the Way

J’Koby Williams Over 55.5 Rushing Yards: (-107, Caesars) – Even though Cameron Dickey gets more touches, Williams is the more explosive carrier. In this game, that’s likely to work to his advantage. Colorado tends to give up big plays, and that fits Williams well.
Texas Tech Over 31.5 Points: (-102, BetMGM) – The Red Raiders have hit this number three times in four attempts in 2026. Only Houston managed to keep Texas Tech under 30, and Colorado’s defense doesn’t appear anywhere near as good as Houston’s.
Colorado Team Total Under 114.5 Rushing Yards: (-114, FanDuel) – The Buffaloes aren’t a great running team, and they’re sending out a new quarterback. Texas Tech’s run defense is stout; only Houston has gone for more than 75 rushing yards against them. The Red Raiders will likely take away the ground game and make Wilson try to beat them.

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