Pac-12 Championship Opening Odds and Picks for 2026: Boise State Leads New-Look League

While the Pac-12 is a legacy brand, the new-look Pac-12 championship opening odds favor one of college football’s newest powers.

Boise State finally has the seat it wanted in a higher-tier league, and the Broncos look like the class of the new Pac-12. Behind them, there’s a logjam of teams that could finish anywhere in the league. When nobody really stands out, anyone is a reasonable option for a futures play.

That was one of the fun things about the old Pac-12: anyone could realistically beat anyone. As the current Pac-12 championship opening odds suggest, that’s still the case.

There’s also no such thing as riding the schedule to a title in this league. The Pac-12 only has eight teams, so everyone plays everyone, with one repeat matchup. Whoever wins this conference will have earned its crown the old-fashioned way.

The Favorite: Boise State (+160, DraftKings)

If Boise State can play consistently well on offense, it wins the Pac-12. The Broncos were a tale of two teams last season, almost entirely predicated on whether the offense had a good day. In nine victories, Boise State didn’t score less than 24 points. In seven of those wins, the Broncos topped 30 points.

In five losses, Boise State scored 10 points or less every time. And none of those games were even close; the Broncos lost four of them by 23 points or more. So there’s a wide gap between the ceiling and the floor for the Broncos. Boise State has the highest ceiling in the conference, making this bet a reasonable play. But the floor is a lot lower than bettors would like for these Pac-12 championship opening odds.

The Value Play: San Diego State (+500, FanDuel)

Once Sean Lewis gets his system and his players in place, good things happen for his program. He managed success in his third full year at Kent State, getting the Golden Flashes to the MAC championship game. He’s now in year three at San Diego State, and his offense has another year of experience under its belt.

San Diego State wasn’t good on offense last year, but Lewis was still trying to get his team on the same page. His defense saved the day, and the Aztecs have enough returning on offense this year to make them a viable threat to win the Pac-12.

Going to Boise State in late November makes this a difficult challenge. But if Lewis follows his usual trajectory, the Aztecs will have a chance at the end.

A Dark Horse: Oregon State (+2000, BetMGM)

After a 2-10 season last year, nobody expects much from Oregon State. The Beavers underwent a total makeover after firing Trent Bray, which will likely see major benefits on offense.

Truth be told, Oregon State wasn’t quite as bad as its record indicates. The Beavers were just 1-3 in one-score games last season, and with a bit more luck and better scheduling, they could have been in a bowl game. This year’s team should be more balanced, and the Beavers did play better after getting rid of Bray.

Is JaMarcus Shepard the answer in Corvallis? It’s far too early to tell. But his roster is worth taking a flier on with the Pac-12 championship opening odds this high.

A Risk to Avoid: Fresno State (+650, DraftKings)

Fresno State has to find a quarterback fast, because it hits a brutal stretch to open Pac-12 play. The Bulldogs will play Washington State, Boise State and San Diego State in consecutive weeks, with only Boise coming to the valley.

That’s a tough ask for a team that seemed lost on offense at times last year. Fresno State has the defense to contend, but the Bulldogs didn’t bring in a solid quarterback to get the offense in gear. Unless someone proves himself in the first month of the season, Fresno is likely to struggle early. A 1-2 or 0-3 start in the Pac-12 would likely end any championship hopes before they begin.