Oregon vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 26: High Octane Evening in Hollywood

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Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 26, 2026
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. Photo by USA Today via Reuters Connect.

When the USC Trojans made the move to the Big Ten, one thing they thought they were leaving behind was the Oregon Ducks. But when the Pac-12 fell apart, the Ducks came with the Trojans, and they’ve continued their dominance of USC. Oregon’s offense looks as strong as ever, but the defense seems more suspect than usual. We offer our Mississippi vs. Florida prediction, break down the odds of this early-season SEC battle and discuss our picks for this matchup.

Has Oregon recovered from its early season issues? The Ducks put themselves in a deep hole in the year’s first two weeks, struggling with Boise State and losing at Oklahoma State. The defense just hasn’t been what was expected, regardless of last week’s shutout of Portland State.

The good news for Oregon is there’s still time to fix things. All the Ducks have to do is navigate a loaded Big Ten, and they’ll still find a way to the playoff. And given USC’s defensive and historic issues, this might be the spot for them to get things fixed.

The Trojans are the higher-ranked team, but only because they haven’t lost. SC hasn’t looked anything like a top-quality unit, especially not on defense. The Trojans looked to be turning a corner when they blanked Fresno State, but they just gave up 35 points to Rutgers.

That says points are likely to happen on both sides of this matchup. That would be a typical outcome for this rivalry, which rarely sees much defense played.

Oregon vs. USC Odds

The money has come in on USC. The Ducks initially went in as a 5.5-point favorite, but the line has pulled to just 3.5 points. That says the public still isn’t buying Oregon after its first two weeks. And that’s understandable; Oregon did not look good against either Boise or Oklahoma State. It hasn’t shown it can beat a Power 4 opponent.

USC looked shaky against Rutgers on the road. The Trojans seem to have gotten a bit of a pass because they went coast-to-coast, but the seven-point win was still alarming.

Caesars has seen the biggest movement toward USC and could have the line down to -3 by kickoff. Here’s a breakdown of the lines.

These numbers indicate a high-scoring contest is expected. The oddsmakers believe the Ducks are about a touchdown better than USC on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says USC has around a 40% chance to win the game. That’s better than the normal probability for home underdogs, who cash the moneyline about 27% of the time.

Oregon was supposed to be rock-solid on both sides of the ball, but the defense hasn’t done its job yet. In two games against FBS competition, Oregon has conceded 66 points. Oklahoma State could have been even worse; the Cowboys had multiple drive-killing turnovers that kept Oregon in the game.

To date, the Ducks haven’t gotten much pressure on the quarterback. Any time the front seven doesn’t get into the backfield, points tend to follow. The Ducks do force turnovers, but Oregon’s aggressive style leads to one of two outcomes. Either the Ducks give their offense a short field, or they get burned and give up points.

With Dante Moore under center, Oregon shouldn’t have to worry about its offense. Whether its defense finds some answers will determine if it can win this game.

The Trojans have had no issues moving the ball. They’ve scored at least 39 points in every game they’ve played this season. Their passing ranks 13th nationally, as Jayden Maiava hasn’t had much of a struggle in attacking his first four opponents.

That said, USC faced a weak schedule to this point. The Trojans’ best opponent to date might be Louisiana, which might or might not be capable of competing in the Sun Belt this season. USC hasn’t seen an offense like Oregon’s, which says it probably cannot slow down the Ducks here.

Oregon vs. USC Prediction: Over 61.5 (-112)

If a team can give up 35 points to Rutgers, it’s not going to have much luck stopping Oregon. The Scarlet Knights probably aren’t as bad as they showed against Massachusetts, but Rutgers still only scored 21 points on a team that had gone 0-12 the year before. And USC still couldn’t stop them.

So this bet has more to do with whether Oregon can stop the Trojans. Before the season started, that would have seemed iffy. Now it seems highly improbable. Oregon’s defense hasn’t played up to its potential, and SC has always given the Ducks trouble on that side of the football.

This rivalry almost always sees points, and lots of them. Out of their past five meetings in Los Angeles, only one has seen less than 65 points scored. Expect a lot of offense here, even though the public is split 50-50 on the total.

More Oregon vs. USC Picks, Props and Best Bets – Chambliss Carries the Day

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