Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 3: Hawkeyes Hang Around

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Written By Dan Angell | Published at October 3, 2026
Michigan linebacker Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng (12) tackles Iowa running back Kamari Moulton (28) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026. Photo by USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.

The expansion of the Big Ten had kept the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes apart for the past several years. But the end of divisions brought the teams back together, which might not be to Ohio State’s benefit. The Buckeyes have mostly dominated this series, but only in Columbus. With Iowa coming off a stunning win in Michigan, can the Hawkeyes ride that wave to an upset? We offer our Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction, look at the odds of this border battle and provide our picks for this game.

It’s pretty rare for a ranked team to be getting more points than its ranking, especially at home. But that’s where Iowa sits here. The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 14 in the nation, and they’re getting 14.5 points at home against Ohio State.

That might be a bit of a mistake. Ohio State hasn’t exactly played great football in Iowa City. The Buckeyes have gone 15-2 in their past 17 meetings with Iowa, but they’ve lost in two of their past four visits to Iowa City. Ohio State hasn’t been to Kinnick Stadium since 2017, and that was disastrous; the Buckeyes threw four interceptions and left with a 55-24 defeat.

Obviously, nobody’s expecting a repeat of that debacle. But there’s a real possibility that Iowa can keep this interesting. The Hawkeyes’ offense finally doesn’t appear to be a liability, and the defense is as good as ever.

Beyond that, Ohio State didn’t look invincible against Texas. Although the Buckeyes held a 20-point lead in Austin, that had more to do with Longhorn errors than Ohio State’s own performance. If the Hawkeyes can avoid that slow start, this could get interesting.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Odds

The money isn’t buying the Hawkeyes just yet. The line started at two touchdowns, and has moved past the critical number of 14 by adding the hook to Ohio State’s side. Only BetMGM has yet to add the extra half-point to the line, and DraftKings offers the most value on the Hawkeyes with the hook.

Iowa has been in this situation before against a Big Ten giant, with favorable results. Last year, the Hawkeyes were a home dog to both Indiana and Oregon, who went a combined 29-2 overall. Iowa fell by 5 to the Hoosiers and by 2 to the Ducks, while getting at least 6.5 points in both situations.

Here’s a breakdown of the lines.

These numbers indicate expectations for a lower-scoring contest, which is typical of Iowa’s past. The oddsmakers believe Ohio State is about 17 points better than Iowa on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says Iowa has just a 18% chance to win the game. That’s well below the standard probability for home underdogs, who cash the moneyline about 27% of the time. Still, it’s not a terrible number for a team that’s getting more than two touchdowns.

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Ohio State has been tested once, and that gets an asterisk. Texas opened the door in that game by coughing the ball up twice on its first two possessions, handing the Buckeyes 10 points. Without that poor early start, the Longhorns likely take control of the game much earlier.

Besides that game, Ohio State hasn’t really been in any danger. The Buckeyes expected to win comfortably against Ball State and Kent State, but Iowa represents their first real test since Texas.

In recent games, Ohio State has gotten skittish down the stretch. Ryan Day has had a tendency to call close games more conservatively, as if he’s afraid to lose. The Buckeyes are at their best when Day coaches to win, which he does when he feels he has nothing to lose.

Iowa needs to keep the football on the ground. The Ohio State defense is suspect, having allowed 462 yards to Illinois last time out. The Hawkeyes boast an excellent running game behind Kamari Moulton, and Ohio State’s run defense hasn’t shown that it can consistently get stops.

If the Hawkeyes try to outscore Ohio State, they’re going to lose. Iowa’s best chance for an upset is to keep the chains moving and keep Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith off the field.

Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction: Iowa +14.5 (-115)

Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are at their best when they have low expectations around them. Expectations don’t get much lower than facing Ohio State. But this is not the Ohio State of two years ago, at least not on defense.

This also isn’t the Iowa of two years ago. The days of the Hawkeyes stumbling to get out of their own way on offense are gone. Iowa can score now, and although it will never be confused with Ohio State’s offense, the Hawkeyes’ offense isn’t just being counted on to not lose the game.

Ohio State still has a ways to go before it’s a finished outfit. This appears to be more of a seven to 10-point Buckeye victory, as is often the case when Iowa hosts a giant.

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