NCAAF SMU vs Florida State: Predictions, How To Watch and Best Bets

Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 6, 2026

Aug 30, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) runs with the ball against the East Texas A&M Lions during the first half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.

Will having a game under their belts make a difference in this SMU vs. Florida State contest? It didn’t two years ago when the Seminoles hosted Boston College. Florida State came into that game off a loss to Georgia Tech, but gave a listless performance on its way to a 15-point loss. That proved a harbinger for a 2-10 season, which put Mike Norvell on the hot seat in Tallahassee.

Florida State has gone just 8-17 over the past two-plus seasons. The Seminoles used to dominate the ACC, but they’re just 3-13 in the league since it expanded. And in SMU, they face a program that’s made all the right moves since coming to the ACC.

However, facing the Mustangs early might be what the Seminoles need. SMU has gone 31-10 in its past three seasons, but the Mustangs are known for being slow starters. Over the past three Septembers, SMU is just 7-5 SU and 4-8 ATS. Last year, SMU went 0-4 ATS to start the season, and the schedule wasn’t exactly loaded. The Mustangs faced the likes of East Texas A&M and Missouri State, yet still couldn’t cover.

The line is far closer for SMU’s first trip to Tallahassee. But given the Mustangs’ history and the Seminoles’ desperation, this could be a spot for a small upset.

Here’s a look at this SMU vs. Florida State matchup to open the college football season.

SMU vs. Florida State Prediction

Best Bet: Under 53.5 (Caesars, -114)

Taking the under seems risky, given how shaky Florida State looked on defense last week. But the Seminoles should have some things corrected, and the Mustangs will be working through the rust.

SMU had a clear talent advantage in its first road test at Missouri State last year. It struggled to get going in a 28-10 win. It won at Nevada two years ago, but it was a 29-24 win against a team it was supposed to beat by three touchdowns.

Florida State’s defense should be more ready for Kevin Jennings and SMU. The offense is likely to still be on the shaky side, and the weather isn’t likely to help. Doak Campbell Stadium features natural grass, and storms are rolling through the Southeast. Expect the weather to slow both teams down, making this play from Caesars a solid one.

SMU vs. Florida State Same Game Parlay

Under 53.5

Florida State +3

Kevin Jennings Under 269.5 Passing Yards

Even though Jennings has the experience to attack the FSU secondary, conditions and rust likely keep him from having too strong of a game. Florida State should have far fewer miscues by virtue of having already played a game and having the home fans behind it.

The Seminoles did struggle two years ago in this spot. But that Florida State team was coming back from Ireland, which historically messes with the losing program. This FSU team played at home, and it’s coming off a win. That should give the Seminoles a boost, even if it’s not as much as they would like.

A tight SMU win appears to be the most likely outcome here. Taking the free field goal at home with the Seminoles makes the most sense.