NCAAF Oregon vs Oklahoma State: Predictions, How To Watch and Best Bets

Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 10, 2026

Oregon coach Dan Lanning directs football practice April 5, 2022. Eug 040522 Lanning 02. Photo by USA Today via Reuters Connect.

If ever a game represented a contrast between two teams, last year’s matchup of Oregon vs. Oklahoma State personified it.

The Ducks have soared under Dan Lanning, going 26-3. The only teams to best them have been Ohio State and Indiana, the past two national champions. The Cowboys fell apart under Mike Gundy. They dropped to 3-9 in 2024, then traveled to Oregon in their second game of 2025. The Ducks won that game 69-3, and the Cowboys spiraled out of control.

Gundy was fired, but it didn’t make a difference in a 1-11 season. New coach Eric Morris came in with a new roster and promise of change, but Oklahoma State’s season opener brought more of the same. Instead of ending the losing, the Cowboys actually regressed. Tulsa won by two touchdowns, making it 21 straight losses to FBS opposition.

And now the Cowboys welcome in Oregon, with the Ducks not in a great mood after escaping Boise State. Historically, it’s not been great to face Dan Lanning’s program after a shaky Oregon performance. In Lanning’s four years in Eugene, the Ducks’ average margin of victory after their first ATS loss of the year to an FBS opponent is 45.5 points. It’s hard to find a worse way for Oklahoma State to follow its season opener.

Here’s a look at this Oregon vs. Oklahoma State matchup to open the college football season.

Oregon vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

Best Bet: Over 56.5 (BetMGM, -110)

The over makes sense for a simple reason: Oregon might hit this number on its own. The fewest the Ducks have scored off their first ATS loss of the year under Lanning was 49 points. Last year, Oregon crushed Rutgers for 56 points in a 46-point rout.

Oklahoma State projects to be a little better on offense, if only because it’s hard to do worse. The Cowboys looked off in their first game against Tulsa, in part because it’s essentially a new team coming together. That takes time, and the Cowboys don’t have much of it.

But Drew Mestemaker has more than he showed against Tulsa, and there’s the possibility of garbage time points. If Oregon puts this game to bed in the first half, the over will almost certainly cash at BetMGM.

Oregon vs. Oklahoma State Same Game Parlay

Over 56.5

Oregon -23

Dante Moore Over 299.5 Passing Yards

One of two things is likely to happen in Stillwater. Either Oklahoma State will continue to turn the ball over, giving Moore and the offense short fields to work with, or the Cowboys will clean mistakes up on offense, meaning Moore has more reason to throw and attack the Oklahoma State secondary. In either case, Moore will get time and space to throw.

Oklahoma State seemed to be a step behind against Tulsa’s Baylor Hayes. Moore is several steps ahead of that level of competition. He’s coming off throwing for 378 against Boise State, and he needs a big day to stay on top of the Heisman race. Don’t expect Lanning and the Ducks to let off the gas too early in this one. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Oregon, and that includes Moore.