NCAAF Ohio State vs Texas: Predictions, How To Watch and Best Bets
Everyone who follows college football understands that Ohio State vs. Texas is the biggest game in the non-conference part of the schedule. The question surrounding this matchup is simple: can the Longhorns protect Arch Manning from the Buckeyes’ pass rush?
Last year, they couldn’t do it. Ohio State got to Manning 15 times last year in Columbus, and Texas scored just seven points. The Manning Heisman hype ended right there, and the quarterback’s play was inconsistent for the rest of the season.
Manning now has another year of experience under his belt. But the Texas offensive line remains a question mark, and Ohio State remains one of the best defenses in the nation. The Buckeyes held all 13 opponents under 20 points last year until the College Football Playoff, and they looked every bit as strong in thumping Ball State.
The offense, however, had its problems against top-quality teams. The Buckeyes only got 14 points against Texas, 14 against Miami, and 10 against Indiana. Julian Sayin is also a year more experienced, and he’ll have to show he can win a game like this rather than just not lose it.
Either way, the winner will have a big edge toward a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. Here’s a look at our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and odds analysis for this matchup of top-5 teams.
Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction
This is the third time these teams have met since the start of 2025. Ohio State has won both meetings, besting Texas 28-14 in the semifinals of the 2024 CFP and by last year’s 14-7 margin in Columbus. Each time, the defenses have won the battle.
Both teams feature a quarterback that’s had problems dealing with pressure. Sayin had four games last season in which he threw for fewer than 200 yards, which speaks to both his occasional struggles and Ohio State’s ability to win in different ways.
The Buckeye defense only tends to struggle against truly great offenses, and even then, it’s only when the offense is having a good day. That’s not likely to happen in this game. Manning has shown far too much inconsistency to expect a big day on his side of the ball.
He improved down the stretch, but Vanderbilt and Arkansas don’t have the kind of defense Ohio State does. The Buckeyes are likely to make things tough on Manning, while Sayin isn’t likely to have any more success the other way. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest, making the Under at BetMGM Sportsbook a valuable play.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 (BetMGM, -105)
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win Ohio State vs. Texas Same Game Parlay
- Under 49.5
- Ohio State +1.5
- Under 24.5 First Half
Neither team faced much of a challenge last week. That changes in this game, which likely means a feeling-out period for both offenses. Both teams are further ahead on defense than on offense, and things haven’t changed much from a year ago.
Ohio State appears to be the deeper team, and Texas still has several questions on the offensive line. The Longhorns aren’t likely to challenge the Buckeyes early in the contest. Steve Sarkisian has lost twice to Ryan Day, and he’s likely to take his time to see if he can find a new angle early on.
That lends itself to a low-scoring first half, which should help both the under and an Ohio State cover.
How to Watch Ohio State vs. Texas
- Location: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
- Date: September 12, 2026
- Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
- TV: ABC
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