NCAAF Iowa State vs Iowa: Predictions, How To Watch and Best Bets

Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 11, 2026

Iowa head football coach Kirk Ferentz has a 13-12 record in the annual Iowa State vs. Iowa matchup. Photo by Des Moines Register via Reuters Connect.

There are two things football fans expect from the annual Iowa State vs. Iowa game: Strange things tend to happen, and points will be at a premium.

Over the past seven battles for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, a bettor could have taken Under 39.5 and cashed six of seven times. Only in 2021 did the total go over 40, and that’s because Iowa scored 27 points. That’s the only time since 2017 that either team has scored more than 20 points.

As far as strange things happening, the visitor has won five of the past six meetings. Iowa hasn’t beaten Iowa State in Iowa City since 2018. The Cyclones have won three of four, and the 2023 Iowa win didn’t officially count after NCAA punishments.

That’s got the Hawkeyes more than ready to get one up on their rival. Here’s a look at this Iowa State vs. Iowa matchup for the Cy-Hawk Trophy.

Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction

Best Bet: Under 40.5 (FanDuel, +100)

Iowa’s defense did the job last week against Northern Illinois, and that’s exactly how Kirk Ferentz wants to play. The Hawkeyes are at their best when they manage the clock, keep the ball on the ground and avoid mistakes.

All of those are things they can do against Iowa State. The Cyclones stopped the run well against Southeast Missouri State, but Iowa’s offensive line is a much more menacing beast. Kamari Moulton broke free for 183 yards against Northern Illinois last week; Iowa will try to establish him early and often.

Iowa State hasn’t yet shown its offense is on the same page after some major offseason changes. The Cyclones will likely struggle to create big plays against Iowa’s defense. As long as Iowa doesn’t create multiple big plays when Iowa State has the ball, going Under and getting even money at FanDuel looks like the right move.

Iowa State vs. Iowa Same Game Parlay

Under 40.5

Iowa -14

Iowa Over 211.5 Rushing Yards

The Hawkeyes have stability on their side. Kirk Ferentz has been a fixture on Iowa’s sidelines for a quarter-century. He's established a firm identity for the Hawkeyes that rarely changes. Whether that’s a good or bad thing is debated, but in a game like this, it matters.

Iowa knows exactly what its identity is. The Hawkeyes know how they need to play against the Cyclones, and they know what it takes to handle the emotions of this game. Iowa State and new coach Jimmy Rogers don’t have have that experience yet. The Cyclones have a talent gap with the Hawkeyes, and after three losses in four years, Iowa is highly motivated to win this game.

Expect the Hawkeyes to control the line of scrimmage from the beginning. Iowa’s ground game wears on teams over time, and that should result in long, time-consuming drives that keep the score down but the yardage piling up. The Hawkeyes should earn a comfortable victory at home, led by their rushing attack and defense.