NCAAF Houston vs Texas Tech Predictions, Odds and Picks for Friday: Expect Points in West Texas

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Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 17, 2026
Sep 12, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman (1) looks for an open receiver during the second quarter against the Southern University Jaguars at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect

Last year, Houston vs. Texas Tech made one thing obvious: how far ahead of the Big 12 the Red Raiders were.

Houston arrived for the showdown with a 4-0 record and a quality quarterback in Conner Weigman. By the end of the night, Weigman had been knocked out of the game and Houston’s unbeaten record was history, courtesy of a 35-11 defeat to Texas Tech. The Cougars ended up going 10-3, but they never quite shook off national perception from how thoroughly Texas Tech hammered them.

Now Weigman gets another shot at the Red Raiders, with two major changes in place. First, the scene shifts to the plains of West Texas, where Texas Tech has won nine consecutive games. Second, the Red Raiders’ defense doesn’t look anywhere near as strong as last year.

Both sides have played Oregon State in the season’s first two weeks. Both defenses have taken turns making Braden Atkinson look like an All-American at quarterback for the Beavers. Texas Tech in particular couldn’t contain Atkinson or Jesse Legree, who burned the Red Raiders for 240 receiving yards and two scores.

Weigman will have seen those weaknesses. He should be ready to take advantage of them. And that should make Houston vs. Texas Tech a higher-scoring matchup than the numbers expect.

Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction

Best Bet: Over 52.5 (BetMGM, -105)

There’s a big question regarding Texas Tech in this game. Does coach Joey McGuire trust quarterback Will Hammond to go on the attack and try to outscore Houston?

Texas Tech ran the ball 86 times in its first two games, but it’s fair to wonder the Red Raiders’ rationale. In the game against FCS Abilene Christian, the Red Raiders had every incentive to get the game over with as quickly as possible and avoid injuries. Against Oregon State, Texas Tech’s goal was to keep the ball away from Atkinson, knowing the Beavers could not run the ball.

Houston can run the ball, and the Cougars won’t be afraid to try to score on the ground. Like Texas Tech, Houston ran the ball a lot in its first two games. With the Cougars also facing Oregon State and an FCS opponent, they had similar motivations to the Red Raiders.

Neither side’s run defense has been tested this season. Both teams appear to run the ball too well to expect the defenses to make their opposition one-dimensional. That means McGuire will have to count on Hammond to make some plays.

Weigman will definitely try to attack, especially after how poorly last year went. This is a chance to even the score, and Houston’s likely to show how far it has come. Texas Tech will have to match, which makes points very likely.

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Houston vs. Texas Tech Same Game Parlay (+612)

Texas Tech needs to get off to a fast start. The Red Raiders are at home, and they looked shaky in their first two games. McGuire’s team will want to start quick and establish itself in order to feed off the home crowd.

That isn’t a worry for Houston. The Cougars have the personnel to stay in the game long-term this year. Last year, they pressed the issue too quickly and turned the ball over on their first possession. By the time Houston got its composure, the Red Raiders held a 25-3 lead and the game was essentially over.

This time, Houston will let the game come to it. That probably means trailing after 15 minutes, but that’s no reason to panic. As long as Weigman stays healthy, Houston can keep this game competitive.

How to Watch Houston vs. Texas Tech

Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas

Date: September 18, 2026

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern

TV: Fox

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