Mississippi vs. Texas Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 24: Manning Continues to Struggle
The Mississippi Rebels have to make a statement on the road. They certainly made a statement last week against Missouri, but they haven’t proven they can beat a good team away from home this season. The Texas Longhorns are trying to make sure that they qualify as a good team, which isn’t a sure thing after two previous defeats. The Longhorns have been a ship without a port lately, as Arch Manning continues to struggle. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has apparently begun discussions about benching the famous quarterback, which would be ironic if it happened against this opponent. Whether they do or not, something has to change for the Longhorns. They already carry two losses; a third would likely end their chances for the playoff. We break down our Mississippi vs. Texas prediction, look at the odds of this SEC matchup and give our picks for this game.
The First Family of the SEC appears to be reaching a crisis point. This was already going to be difficult for the Manning family, given that Mississippi was the alma mater of both Archie and Eli Manning. But adding in the fact that Arch Manning has reverted to last season’s issues means this game could turn ugly in a hurry.
For now, the younger Manning remains the starting quarterback for Texas. But coach Steve Sarkisian appears to have lost patience, and has worked in some reps for KJ Lacey. When Manning is at his best, he’s been a strong signal caller for the Longhorns, but too often, he has looked lost on the field.
That can’t happen in this game, given that Trinidad Chambliss and Mississippi have been nearly impossible to stop. The Rebels’ problem hasn’t been the offense at any point this year; they’ve scored at least 28 points every time they’ve taken the field. The question has been whether the defense would match, which has been more iffy.
Last week, the defense was rock-solid in holding Missouri to three points. If they play the way they have at home on their trip to Austin, they could finish off Texas’ playoff hopes. If the defense struggles again, the Longhorns will once again have life.
Mississippi vs. Texas Odds
The public and the sharps have both lost faith in Texas over the past two weeks. The Longhorns were No. 1 in the nation two weeks ago, but losses to Oklahoma and Florida have taken the shine off their resume. Texas started as an 8.5-point favorite, but the line is down to 3 points, now sitting on the critical number.
This is a case where the sharps and public are aligned; 82% of the tickets have come in on Mississippi. This says that both the bets and money have turned against the home team.
Here’s a breakdown of the lines, with the best odds coming at Caesars.
- Spread: Mississippi +3 (-105) / Texas -3 (-115)
- Moneyline: Mississippi (+135) / Texas (-160)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 54 (-108) / Under 54 (-112)
These numbers indicate expectations for a tight game that is a little more defensive than these teams’ recent performances would suggest. Texas’ past two games have featured the same total of 51 points, and none of their past five games went over that number. The oddsmakers believe Mississippi is about even with Texas on a neutral field. The implied probability of this game says Mississippi has a 43% chance to win the game. That’s quite high for an underdog, especially on the road. If you’re betting the moneyline, this might be a value play.
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- The Rebels are 3-1 ATS in the SEC this year.
- The over is 3-0 in the Rebels’ games away from Oxford.
- The visiting team has won the past two matchups.
- The Rebels are 8-2 SU in their past 10 games against the SEC.
The biggest question for Mississippi is the question that’s hounded it since week 1: is Kewan Lacy healthy enough to handle the workload?
Last week, he was, and Mississippi had no problems against Missouri. Lacy carried the ball 16 times for 122 yards, proving instrumental in the Rebels’ control of that game. When he hasn’t been available, the Rebels haven’t been quite the same.
Ole Miss still has Trinidad Chambliss, which gives the Rebels the ability to score quickly from anywhere on the field. But Lacy’s presence on the ground forces opponents to change the way they have to attack the Rebel defense. When teams know Mississippi could keep the ball for several minutes, they have to press and take chances.
That’s when Mississippi is at its best. If the Rebels are the ones having to take chances, things don’t work anywhere near as well.
Texas Betting Trends
- Texas is 1-5 ATS this season.
- The Longhorns have not covered against a Power 4 opponent.
- The under is 3-1 against Power 4 opposition.
- Texas has scored 30 points or less in five consecutive weeks.
The fact that outsiders are already discussing who Texas’ quarterback will be next season isn’t a great sign. To be fair, Arch Manning has been through this before, as his midseason play last year was abysmal. But these are areas in his growth he was supposed to have already figured out.
Instead, he’s returned to old habits. Last week against Florida, Manning threw for just 173 yards and one score, and Texas saw a 10-0 lead melt into a 27-24 loss. The Longhorns eventually wore down on defense, in part because they couldn’t count on Manning to lead things.
Texas has the talent to be a top team, as it showed against Ohio State. But the Longhorns appear to be disintegrating, in part because they don’t seem to trust Manning and don’t have a strong ground game to back him up. Neither is a recipe for success in the SEC.
Mississippi vs. Texas Prediction: Mississippi +3 (-105)
The thinking is that Mississippi’s road no-show at Florida had more to do with being emotionally spent after beating Lane Kiffin and LSU. Outside of that clunker against the Gators, Mississippi has handled everything the SEC has thrown at it. While the defense has been shaky at times, Texas isn’t in position to take advantage of any mistakes that the Rebel defense might make.
Mississippi looked very good on defense in shutting down Missouri last week. When Lacy is on the field, the Rebel defense plays better knowing that it can rest between series. Plus, Texas appears vulnerable to that kind of performance. Part of Florida’s comeback included an eight-minute drive that ended with points.
Those can’t happen when Texas is already struggling to get results. If Mississippi controls the tempo, it will likely win the game.
More Mississippi vs. Texas Picks, Props and Best Bets – Rebel Defense Rules the Day
- Under 54.5: (-110, BetMGM) – If the Mississippi defense is worth trusting and Arch Manning is not, then the under has to be the play here. Texas hasn’t hit this number since Week 1 against Texas State, and the Mississippi defense seems to have turned a corner.
- Kewan Lacy Over 74.5 Rushing Yards: (+130, BetMGM) – Lacy is a Texas native and wants to make a statement to his home state school. This is his chance, and he’s likely going to make the most of it. As long as he’s healthy, expect the Rebels to ride him.
- Arch Manning Under 235.5 Passing Yards: (-112, FanDuel) – Manning hasn’t shown anything to suggest he can hit this number, and all reports say Texas will have a quick hook in place if he struggles. Odds are, he’ll come in well under this total.
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Play Now at Underdog Mississippi vs. Texas Broadcast Info
- Date: October 24, 2026
- Start Time: 7:30 p.m. EDT
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
- TV and Streaming Options: ABC/Hulu
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