Mississippi vs. Florida Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 26: Back the Rebels on the Road

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Written By Dan Angell | Published at September 26, 2026
Sep 19, 2026; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels offensive lineman Patrick Kutas (75) reacts with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) after a touchdown run during the fourth quarter against the LSU Tigers at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect

There’s an obvious reason why the Mississippi Rebels are underdogs when visiting the Florida Gators: they’re expected to emotionally crash after last week. But this Ole Miss squad is a veteran group, and they’re likely to stave off this trap game. We give out our Mississippi vs. Florida prediction, discuss the odds of this early-season SEC battle and offer our picks for this matchup.

It’s taken a lot for Mississippi and Pete Golding to get any respect in the college football world. Getting to the semifinals of last year’s College Football Playoff didn’t do it. Beating LSU and Lane Kiffin last week didn’t do it. Despite all the Rebels have done, they find themselves underdogs to a Florida Gators outfit that has yet to prove its worth.

The Gators are far different from last year’s 4-8 squad. They’re better coached than they were last year. They have a strong identity, one that makes life difficult for good opponents. They have their arrogance back, at least to some extent.

But they haven’t faced an opponent of this quality yet, and Florida coach Jon Sumrall knows it. In the press conference leading up to Saturday’s matchup, Sumrall implied that the oddsmakers had taken some strong drugs when making his Gators small favorites over Mississippi.

While that’s an exaggeration, Florida is clearly favored because of emotions rather than results. Experts believe Florida is back on track and expect an emotional crash from Mississippi after winning against Kiffin last week. If Golding can make sure that doesn’t happen, it would go a long way toward earning some real respect.

Mississippi vs. Florida Odds

The money has favored Florida, and it seems that the movement has ignored how last week ended for the Gators. At the same time, it has greatly emphasized how last week ended for the Rebels. Ole Miss played a tight game from start to finish and needed a final push to win.

Florida ran out of gas a bit against Auburn, but had built enough of a lead for it not to matter. That’s led Mississippi vs. Florida odds to move from the Gators by 1.5 to Florida -3.5. Waiting on Mississippi might not be a bad idea, although the line now seems to have stabilized.

BetMGM has seen the biggest movement toward Mississippi. Here’s a breakdown of the lines.

These numbers indicate a very high-scoring contest. Given that home field is worth around three points, this line indicates that the oddsmakers believe the teams are of equal strength. The implied probability of this game gives Mississippi a 40.8% chance to win the game.

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How close things end up has depended more on the Rebels’ defense than anything. The Mississippi offense has been as reliable as it comes. And that’s had much to do with Trinidad Chambliss under center.

Kewan Lacy has battled injuries this season, having left the game early twice this season. Last week against LSU, he left the game after nine carries. It didn’t matter because Chambliss threw for 363 yards, carving up the LSU secondary.

Lacy is a doubtful game-time decision, and Mississippi doesn’t really have a strong No. 2 running back in his absence. The Rebels will want to attack through the air, which means the points will likely come early and often.

Although the Gators have covered four straight against the Rebels, that stat doesn’t mean as much as it seems. Florida was an underdog in two of those games, and the other two came before Lane Kiffin had transformed the Rebels’ program.

For Florida to cover again, the Gators will need to run the football. Jadan Baugh serves as Florida’s top man in the backfield, and the Gators will rely on him against a Mississippi run defense that hasn’t been that imposing.

Even with Mississippi in control of the game, Dilin Jones still managed to top 100 rushing yards. If Baugh punishes the Rebels on the ground, Mississippi vs. Florida becomes a tough ask for the visitors to win.

Mississippi vs. Florida Prediction: Mississippi +3.5 (-110)

The reason to fade Florida is because the Gators haven’t yet proven that they can handle a game like this one. Florida has talent, no question. But the Gators have not yet shown the ability to handle a top-quality SEC team.

Beating Auburn on the road is impressive. But the Tigers aren’t a high-level SEC program at this point. The Rebels are, and they have one of the best offenses in the country. Florida has to prove it can handle this level before it is favored.

The public believes Mississippi is good enough to overcome its emotional roller coaster. 78% of public money has come in on the Rebels, which suggests the public is not aligned with the sharps. With a veteran team like Ole Miss, that appears the right choice. If you prefer betting the moneyline, there's value there on Mississippi as well.

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