Florida State vs Alabama Predictions, Odds and Picks for Saturday: Seminoles Hang Around With Bama

A year ago, Florida State vs. Alabama was seen as a turning point for Mike Norvell’s team. The Seminoles stunned the college football world by beating Alabama by two touchdowns, shaking off the previous year’s 2-10 campaign. Florida State rose as high as No. 8 in the polls, and it looked like 2024 was just a one-year blip.

Instead, the Seminoles collapsed in ACC play and the Crimson Tide recovered. Following that game, Florida State went just 2-6 in the ACC and 5-7 overall. Alabama recovered from the loss, reached the SEC championship game and ended its season in the Rose Bowl. The Tide still weren’t happy with their season, but ending the year in the College Football Playoff is a far cry from the 5-7 mark Florida State earned.

The Seminoles now face the return trip to Tuscaloosa. And their situation isn’t any better a year later, which has the public sour on their chances.

Of course, when the public starts to sour on a team, that’s usually the time to jump on them. Florida State’s problem last year wasn’t that it was getting blown out. It was an inability to handle close games. Only the season finale with Florida — after the Seminoles had crashed in ACC play — saw Florida State lose by more than 10 points.

Alabama hasn’t looked like a top-tier team just yet. Florida State still has its problems with winning close games. And while that makes the Crimson Tide likely to win this Florida State vs. Alabama matchup, the spread appears far too high.

Florida State vs. Alabama Prediction

Best Bet: Florida State +19.5 (DraftKings, -108)

Keelon Russell’s mistakes piled up in the first half last week at Kentucky, and Alabama paid the price for 30 minutes. Russell committed three turnovers in the first half in Lexington, leaving the Tide down four at the break.

Although Alabama outscored Kentucky 32-0 in the second half to pull away, that’s not a great recipe for blowing out Florida State. The Seminoles have an aggressive, play-making defense that forced SMU into four turnovers in a 27-24 loss on Labor Day.

Russell will probably be more comfortable playing at home. But Florida State’s defense is more talented than Kentucky’s. Russell isn’t likely to have all of his issues fixed within a week. Even if he does, the Crimson Tide still has to handle Florida State’s ground game.

The Crimson Tide haven’t really been tested on the ground yet. Florida State will make Alabama prove it can really stop the run. That does not lend itself to a blowout. This game feels more like a one-score game into the fourth quarter, which Alabama puts away for a two-touchdown win.

That won’t help Mike Norvell’s job security in Tallahassee, but it would give the Seminoles the cover.

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Florida State vs. Alabama Same Game Parlay (+608, DraftKings)

• Under 49.5

• Florida State +19.5

• Ousmane Kromah Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

Last year, Florida State won by punishing Alabama on the ground. The Crimson Tide believe that they’ve improved their run defense, but East Carolina and Kentucky didn’t exactly test them.

Florida State will, and Kromah has the ability to do it. He ran for 114 yards against SMU, and the Seminoles will rely on him to keep the chains moving and keep Russell on the sidelines. The longer Florida State keeps the offense on the field, the better it will be for the Seminoles.

If Florida State’s going to keep this close by having success on the ground, that doesn’t lend itself to a lot of points. Last year finished 31-17, just under this year’s total of 49.5. This game will probably have a similar look to it.

How to Watch Florida State vs. Alabama

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Date: September 19, 2026

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

TV: ABC