Big 12 Championship Opening Odds and Picks for 2026: Texas Tech’s Race to Lose

If bettors were thinking the loss of Brendan Sorsby would drastically change the Big 12 championship opening odds, they were mistaken.

On paper, Texas Tech appears so far ahead of the league that it doesn’t matter who the Red Raiders play at quarterback. Tech ran through the Big 12 in 2025, only losing to Arizona State on the road. The rest of the league barely laid a scratch on Texas Tech; the Red Raiders outscored their other nine Big 12 opponents 356-81.

And as they prepare to run it back in 2026, they landed a schedule that doesn’t include any of the league’s top teams until Arlington. BYU, Utah and Kansas State are all projected to be in the top 25 in the nation. Texas Tech doesn’t play any of them.

So there’s not much value in taking Texas Tech, because it’s an even money play. But unless they show a sign of weakness under center, it’s hard to justify anyone else’s Big 12 championship opening odds being a better bet.

The Favorite: Texas Tech (+100, BetMGM)

Missing out on the top three opponents in the Big 12 only scratches the surface of how favorable Tech’s slate is. Even when considering who the Red Raiders do play, this schedule favors them heavily.

The next tier of Big 12 teams is expected to include Arizona, Arizona State, Houston and TCU. All of them come to Lubbock this year. The Red Raiders don’t play anyone projected to finish in the top half away from home.

And beyond the quarterback question, Texas Tech looks loaded. Coach Joey McGuire hits the transfer portal well, and the Red Raiders should be excellent on defense again. Over the final six Big 12 games last year, only Kansas State broke seven points against the Tech defense.

The Value Play: Kansas State (+1600, FanDuel)

The Wildcats are nowhere near as straightforward as Texas Tech. They’re changing coaches, they’re coming off a 6-6 season and they’re very raw overall. But the schedule is just about as favorable: Kansas State also misses both BYU and Utah along with Texas Tech.

If Collin Klein can get Avery Johnson to show more consistency, Kansas State has the potential to ride its schedule to Arlington. These Big 12 championship opening odds reflect the reality of the situation: Kansas State has to have a lot break its way.

Specifically, the Wildcats need the rest of the top tier to bump each other off, while K-State racks up victories against the lesser half of the league. That would presumably land a one-game showdown with Texas Tech in Arlington, and K-State would certainly have a better chance than these odds suggest to win that game. It’s a big risk, but there’s lots of value.

A Dark Horse: Oklahoma State (+2900, DraftKings)

Oklahoma State hasn’t won a game in the Big 12 in two years. But new coach Eric Morris has dramatically remade the Cowboys’ roster. He imported most of the talent from North Texas, which went 12-2 last season. Before dismissing that, remember that Curt Cignetti went 11-1 in his first year at Indiana with a roster of mostly James Madison transfers.

Obviously, Morris isn’t necessarily going to be Cignetti. Oklahoma State also has a long way to go from last year’s 1-11. But this isn’t the same team, and the Cowboys have a new attitude to them now. There are worse ways to take a big swing.

A Risk to Avoid: Utah (+900, FanDuel)

Is Morgan Scalley ready to lead? That’s hard to answer. It’s one reason Utah should be approached with caution, even with reasonable Big 12 championship opening odds. Scalley has essentially spent his entire life in Salt Lake City. He grew up there, played for Utah and has never coached anywhere else.

He’s led the Utes’ defense for a decade, and Utah has long been rock-solid on defense. But the Utes have a harder task than Texas Tech or Kansas State. Scalley is also likely to make a few rookie mistakes. The Utes should win about nine games, but that’s probably not enough to make the Big 12 title game.