Big 12 Championship Opening Odds and Picks for 2026: Texas Tech’s Race to Lose

If bettors were thinking the loss of Brendan Sorsby would drastically change the Big 12 Championship opening odds, they were mistaken.

On paper, Texas Tech appears so far ahead of the league that it doesn’t matter who the Red Raiders play at quarterback. Tech ran through the Big 12 in 2025, only losing to Arizona State on the road. The rest of the league barely laid a scratch on Texas Tech; the Red Raiders outscored their other nine Big 12 opponents 356-81.

And as they prepare to run it back in 2026, they landed a schedule that doesn’t include any of the league’s top teams until Arlington. BYU, Utah, and Kansas State are all projected to be in the top 25 in the nation. Texas Tech doesn’t play any of them.

So there’s not much value in taking Texas Tech because it’s an even-money play. But unless they show a sign of weakness under center, it’s hard to justify anyone else’s Big 12 championship opening odds being a better bet.

Texas Tech Favored in Big 12 Championship Opening Odds  (+100, BetMGM)

Missing out on the top three opponents in the Big 12 only scratches the surface of how favorable Tech’s slate is. Even when considering who the Red Raiders play, this schedule heavily favors them.

The next tier of Big 12 teams is expected to include Arizona, Arizona State, Houston, and TCU. All of them come to Lubbock this year. The Red Raiders don’t play anyone projected to finish in the top half away from home.

And beyond the quarterback question, Texas Tech looks loaded. Coach Joey McGuire hits the transfer portal well, and the Red Raiders should be excellent on defense again. Over the final six Big 12 games last year, only Kansas State broke seven points against the Tech defense.

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Bet Now BetMGM Promo

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, Massachusetts, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

The Value Play: Kansas State (+1600, FanDuel)

The Wildcats are nowhere near as straightforward as Texas Tech. They’re changing coaches, they’re coming off a 6-6 season, and they’re very raw overall. But the schedule is just about as favorable: Kansas State also misses both BYU and Utah, as well as Texas Tech.

If Collin Klein can get Avery Johnson to show more consistency, Kansas State has the potential to ride its schedule to Arlington. These Big 12 championship opening odds reflect the reality of the situation: Kansas State has to have a lot to break its way.

Specifically, the Wildcats need the rest of the top tier to bump each other off, while K-State racks up victories against the lesser half of the league. That would presumably set up a one-game showdown with Texas Tech in Arlington, and K-State would certainly have a better chance than these odds suggest of winning it. It’s a big risk, but there’s lots of value.

A Dark Horse: Oklahoma State (+2900, DraftKings)

Oklahoma State hasn’t won a game in the Big 12 in two years. But new coach Eric Morris has dramatically remade the Cowboys’ roster. He imported most of the talent from North Texas, which went 12-2 last season. Before dismissing that, remember that Curt Cignetti went 11-1 in his first year at Indiana with a roster of mostly James Madison transfers.

Obviously, Morris isn’t necessarily going to be Cignetti. Oklahoma State also has a long way to go from last year’s 1-11. But this isn’t the same team, and the Cowboys now have a new attitude toward them. There are worse ways to take a big swing.

New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass!

Bet Now DraftKings Promo

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new Sportsbook customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 21 days. Bonus Bets and click-to-claims expire 7 days (168hrs) after issuance. Terms: dkng.co/offer. Get 1 promo code to redeem a 3-month NBA League Pass subscription, complimentary of DraftKings. Subscription auto-renews monthly at then-current price (currently $16.99/mo); cancel anytime. Terms, restrictions, and eligibility requirements apply. Redeem League Pass by 12/19/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Addt’l terms: support.watch.nba.com/hc/en-us/articles/9165532876183-League-Pass-Terms-of-Use_. Ends 11/29/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

A Risk to Avoid: Utah (+900, FanDuel)

Is Morgan Scalley ready to lead? That’s hard to answer. It’s one reason Utah should be approached with caution, even with reasonable Big 12 championship opening odds. Scalley has essentially spent his entire life in Salt Lake City. He grew up there, played for Utah, and has never coached anywhere else.

He’s led the Utes’ defense for a decade, and Utah has long been rock-solid on defense. But the Utes have a harder task than Texas Tech or Kansas State. Scalley is also likely to make a few rookie mistakes. The Utes should win about nine games, but that’s probably not enough to make the Big 12 title game.