NCAA Tournament: Predicting Final Four Outcomes

The NCAA Tournament is quickly approaching its final stages after a plethora of spectacular games over the past two weeks. The Final Four is now set, and in the first matchup on Saturday, Illinois will take on UConn, followed by Michigan and Arizona in a clash between two powerhouse No. 1 seeds.

And in many ways, it feels like the winner of Michigan versus Arizona will be the heavy favorite to win it all.

It’s not that Illinois and UConn are not great teams. In fact, UConn just took down a juggernaut Duke team to make it to the Final Four with some late-game heroics, and Illinois has played as well as anybody in this tournament and is one of the most well-rounded, deep teams in the country. But when you look at the overall body of work, Michigan and Arizona are undoubtedly the two best teams remaining, and they’ll play each other for a spot in the championship game.

In the Illinois-UConn game, the Fighting Illini are 2.5-point favorites (via Thrillzz) over the Huskies, and this is expected to be a grind-it-out battle, with an over-under of only 139.5. In this contest, players to keep an eye on include Alex Karaban for UConn, an experienced veteran who has played in the absolute biggest moments, won it all during his collegiate career, and seems to step up when the stage is the brightest.

Conversely, for Illinois, this is a team led by freshman point guard Keaton Wagler, who has been spectacular and may very well end up being a top-five pick in June’s NBA Draft. But in the meantime, he has just been a special player. He is a facilitator, he is a scorer, and he has the length to defend on the other end. He goes as Illinois goes, and when he’s playing well, this is a really tough team to beat.

And so in this one, despite Illinois being a 2.5-point favorite, I’m going to go with UConn here as a slight underdog simply because this team has been there before. Head coach Dan Hurley has been there before. He won back-to-back titles before Florida took the crown last season. There’s just something special about this team. On any championship run, there are magical moments along the way, and what UConn just did to Duke is arguably the most theatrical moment of the tournament thus far.

Now, in the Michigan-Arizona game, Michigan is favored by 1.5. And truly, this is a game between two powerhouses. Both of these teams have only lost two games all season long. It is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with 157.5 as the over-under.

In this game, both teams are stacked. Michigan is led by Yaxel Lendeborg, a dynamic NBA-ready forward with the physical frame to bully and dominate smaller players, but also the quickness and agility to blow by bigger players. He is just a walking mismatch. Michigan also has Aday Mara, who at 7-foot-3 is almost always the biggest player on every floor he steps on, along with Morez Johnson Jr. in the frontcourt, an experienced player who has delivered some big tournament moments.

On the Arizona side, it is just a really balanced roster. Brayden Burries is a dynamic freshman guard. Koa Peat is a do-it-all freshman forward. Jaden Bradley continues to have big moments. And when you look at these two rosters, if you had to pick who is going to be the best player in this Final Four matchup, both teams have four or five guys you could point to because of how deep they are and how much top-end talent they have.

But all things considered, I’m going to take Michigan to come out on top in this one. I just think the sheer size and grittiness stand out, and from a play-style standpoint, what Michigan is doing works really, really well. They are a powerhouse team that is going to be very tough to beat. And Arizona, in my opinion, is the second-best team remaining in this tournament. But only one team can advance.

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So when projecting the outcome of the Final Four, I’ve got Michigan and UConn making it to the NCAA championship game. And in that contest, for all the reasons described here, I’ve got the Wolverines winning it all.

But it is March Madness, and anything can happen. These four teams are extraordinarily good, and that is why they are in this position. At this phase, two wins and you’re the champ. And in March, that’s possible for anybody.