2022 NCAA Tournament Odds: Which Teams Will Be No. 1 Seeds?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on February 24, 2022
NCAA Tournament Odds

We’re just 20 days away from the Round of 64 in the big dance tipping off. Nevertheless, the March Madness No. 1 seeds haven’t all been decided just yet. Which NCAA tournament odds present value for that market in particular?

The programs listed are those from the NCAA tournament selection committee’s bracket reveal from this past Saturday.

You can continue the discussion in our Discord betting community, as we dissect the biggest games throughout the day. Stay up-to-date on the top-68 programs with my college basketball power rankings.

NCAA Tournament Odds: No. 1 Seeds

PointsBet has posted odds to land a No. 1 seed for the top teams in college basketball. Click on the price(s) you like below to wager now.

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Gonzaga
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-1000
Arizona
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-200
Kansas
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-130
Auburn
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-125
Kentucky
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-110
Purdue
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+110
Baylor
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+125
Texas Tech
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+150
Villanova
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+350
Duke
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+375
Providence
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+600
Wisconsin
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+600
UCLA
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+900
Tennessee
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+2000
Illinois
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+3000
Texas
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+5000

For starters, Gonzaga presents zero value ahead of Arizona, Kansas and Auburn, which were all projected to be No. 1 seeds in the bracket reveal show. The Bulldogs are the odds on favorite to cut down the nets in April ().

Generally speaking, I’m never going to lay -200 on any sports wager. The Wildcats are a near-lock to earn one of the No. 1 seeds, though, even if they slip up in the Pac-12 tournament. Tommy Lloyd’s team is to win it all.

But things get interesting with Kansas and Auburn. Kentucky is the biggest threat behind them, while Purdue and Texas Tech have a fighter’s chance as well. In order for Baylor to land their second consecutive No. 1 seed, they’d need to win the Big 12 tournament. Without center Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (knee) out for the season, their chances are slim.

So which team is more likely to rack up an early loss in its respective conference tournament?

Kansas vs. Auburn’s No. 1 Seed NCAA Tournament Odds

The Jayhawks’ defense is worse on paper, ranking No. 32 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) per KenPom. However, Bruce Pearl’s group struggles against opposing transition attacks, and it surrenders its fair share of open 3-pointers as well. Essentially, Auburn’s defense is suspect when it’s not generating takeaways.

  • Adjusted Efficiency accounts for the estimate efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) a team would accrue or allow against the average Division I opponent.

If Bill Self’s crew lost in the Big 12 championship game or earlier, its 10 Quadrant 1 wins — tied for the most across college basketball — speak for themself. On the flip side, Auburn only presents seven of them.

Where’s The Betting Value?

The Wildcats and Red Raiders boast the same number of Quadrant 1 wins (7), yet the committee would likely turn to another conference if the Jayhawks hang onto their No. 1 seed.

Although there isn’t enough value for me, I’d target Kentucky if you’re eyeing a wager in this market. Unless John Calipari is conservative with TyTy Washington (ankle) and Sahvir Wheeler (wrist), I make the Wildcats the favorites to win the SEC tournament – sliding them ahead of Auburn if they emerge victorious.

Regarding Purdue, their defense is too difficult to trust down the stretch for this market.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich