Expert NBA Picks and Player Props: Best NBA Bets Today Nov. 9
NBA picks and player props for Monday, Nov. 9, focus on two teams I’m buying to bounce back, a game that could turn into a shootout, and three player markets built around opportunity.
Memphis and Houston have both hit rough patches, but I still like what those teams bring on an average night. The Pacers and Mavericks have enough offensive firepower to make their total appealing, while the player props target a scoring superstar, a big who can stretch the floor, and a facilitator taking on a bigger role.
Best NBA Picks and Player Props Today Nov. 9
Recent form matters, but it doesn’t tell the entire story. My NBA betting picks start with two teams whose losing streaks haven’t changed my overall opinion of them.
NBA Best Bet #1: Grizzlies Moneyline vs. Raptors (+129)
The Grizzlies have dropped three games in a row, but they’re still a team that takes a ton to beat on any given night.
Memphis enters at 6-3, while Toronto is 5-4. It’s a strange matchup because the Grizzlies have the better record, yet they’re the underdog. That alone doesn’t make Memphis the right bet, but I like buying a bounce-back here.
The Raptors have lost three of their last five and are still playing without Kawhi Leonard, who is dealing with his knee. Toronto has its own issues, and I don’t see this as a spot where Memphis should be written off because of a difficult stretch.
The Grizzlies still have enough talent to make this a tough game for the home team. At +129 odds, we’re getting plus money on a team I think is capable of responding and winning the moneyline.
Prediction: Grizzlies Moneyline at +129 via DraftKings
NBA Best Bet #2: Rockets -8.5 vs. Nuggets (-115)
Houston has lost two in a row, but the Rockets are still 7-3. Denver has won four of its last five and is the hotter team, although its record sits at 5-3.
I still think Houston is the much better team. I’ve made the case for the Rockets being a top-three team in the entire NBA, and a couple of recent struggles haven’t changed that view. Their two-way talent is what makes them so difficult.
Eight and a half is a big spread, especially against a Nuggets team that is theoretically a contender. But I trust Houston’s defense on an average night more than I trust Denver’s offense to consistently overcome it.
Denver also has several starters listed as questionable, which makes availability important before tipoff. My underlying argument is still about Houston. I buy the defense, the overall talent, and the Rockets’ ability to get back on track at home.
Prediction: Rockets -8.5 at -115 via BetMGM
NBA Best Bet #3: Pacers vs. Mavericks Over 222 (-112)
Both these teams have offensive firepower, and this feels like a game that could become a shootout.
Indiana is 3-7, while Dallas is now 6-4 after beating Brooklyn on Sunday. I think both teams are better than their records suggest, especially when looking at what they’re capable of offensively.
They should both be motivated to win this contest. For Indiana, getting something going matters after a difficult start. Dallas has an opportunity to keep building momentum at home.
The Mavericks just scored 130 against the Nets, which is an encouraging reminder of their scoring upside. Indiana’s availability concerns still matter, but I like the offensive potential of this matchup at 222. We need 223 combined points to win, and I think there’s enough scoring ability here to get beyond that number.
I’m backing the Over at -112.
Prediction: Pacers vs. Mavericks Over 222 at -112 via DraftKings
Get Up to $1,000 Back in Bonus Bets Over Your First 10 Days Best NBA Player Props Today Nov. 9
The player portion of these NBA picks and player props includes a scoring star, a big who can stretch the floor, and a Warriors forward doing a little bit of everything.
NBA Player Prop #1: Luka Dončić Over 34 Points (-111)
Luka Dončić has been scoring at a level where I want to keep backing the MVP frontrunner until he gives us a reason to stop.
He is averaging 40.1 points this season and 45.0 over his last four appearances. Asking for more than 34 feels very reasonable given that production. Doncic missed Sunday with lower-back tightness, so this pick is contingent on him being cleared to play against Atlanta. I like that he didn’t have to log minutes in Detroit, but his health still needs to be confirmed.
If he’s available for his usual workload, I’m comfortable coming back to his scoring. The way he’s been putting up 40-point games makes this number appealing. We need 35 to win, with exactly 34 producing a push, and I like that threshold at -111 on most sports betting sites.
Prediction: Luka Dončić Over 34 Points at -111 via BetMGM
NBA Player Prop #2: Alex Sarr Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-209)
Alex Sarr is a versatile big who can contribute offensively on the perimeter. Against Detroit, I’m backing him to make one three. The price is steep at -209, but the threshold is what makes this interesting to me. We only need one shot to fall.
Sarr went 1-for-9 from three against Oklahoma City on Saturday. That was an inefficient shooting night, but it also showed his willingness to keep taking those attempts.
If Washington continues giving him opportunities outside, I like his chances of finding the bottom of the net at least once. He doesn’t need to have a huge scoring performance for this to cash. One make gets it done, and I’m comfortable backing his touch at that number.
Prediction: Alex Sarr Over 0.5 Three-Pointers Made at -209 via DraftKings
NBA Player Prop #3: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 4.5 Assists (+116)
Yaxel Lendeborg has been doing it all for the Warriors, and that includes facilitating.
He has taken on a huge role for this team. His scoring gets attention, but his involvement creates opportunities to set up teammates, too. Lendeborg has reached five assists in six of his first 10 games, despite averaging 4.0 across that stretch. The distribution matters here because we need five tonight.
Golden State faces a New Orleans team I think the Warriors are much more talented than. I like Lendeborg continuing to influence the game in several ways, including as a passer. Getting +116 on most sports betting apps makes the selection even more appealing. We’re backing an important part of Golden State’s offense to keep making plays for the players around him.
Prediction: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 4.5 Assists at +116 via BetMGM
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